Study finds more than 29,000 Scots could die from smoking in next 5 years

Cancer Research UK is calling on MPs to back the Tobacco and Vapes Bill

Author: Molly TulettPublished 25th Nov 2024

Cancer Research UK is warning as many as 29,000 people could die in Scotland from smoking related illness in the next five years, if current trends continue.

The study by the charity projects the number of cancer cases caused by smoking by the end of the current parliamentary term in July 2029.

It estimates there could be 296,661 cases across the UK, with 243,045 are estimated for England, followed by 29,365 in Scotland, 15,161 in Wales and 9,090 in Northern Ireland.

The analysis also warms some 2,846 cases could be caused by exposure to second-hand smoke in people who have never smoked themselves.

29,365 Scots could be affected

The charity is calling on the MPs to back the Tobacco and Vapes Bill ahead of its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

The Scottish Government has backed the legislation, which will need the support of MSPs in Holyrood for it to fully apply in Scotland.

The Bill would make it illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009.

This would mean that children turning 15 this year will never legally be able to be sold cigarettes.

"Tobacco kills up to two thirds of its users"

The legislation also includes powers to introduce a licensing scheme for tobacco and vapes, and extend smoke-free spaces.

Cancer Research said the Bill could have a "profound impact" on Scotland, where tobacco is still the leading cause of cancer.

The charity said the Bill represents a historic opportunity to help prevent cancers, alleviate pressures on already overstretched health services and pave the way for a smoke-free UK.

Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy at Cancer Research, said: "Tobacco kills up to two-thirds of its users. The magnitude of damage caused by smoking cannot be ignored and these statistics expose the lives that are at stake.

"A lifetime of deadly and costly addiction"

"We know that smoking rates decline with government intervention. Raising the age of sale of tobacco products and funding cessation services will help to protect people from a lifetime of deadly and costly addiction.

"The Tobacco and Vapes Bill could be one of the most impactful public health interventions in my lifetime. People's lives are now in the hands of politicians and I urge all MPs to vote for a future free from the harms of tobacco."

The idea of increasing the age limit for tobacco was first proposed by the last Conservative government under Rishi Sunak and the policy has been continued under Labour's Sir Keir Starmer.

Sheila Duffy, chief executive of the charity Action on Smoking and Health Scotland, said: "Cancer Research UK's estimates about the number of lives being lost to smoking-related cancers demonstrates why MPs representing constituents across the country must support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill's strong measures to continue driving down use of tobacco - the biggest preventable killer in Scotland.

"MPs...must support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill"

"Westminster must guard against all attempts by the tobacco industry and its allies to delay or weaken the legislation and consequent regulations.

"Elected representatives owe it to current and future generations to work at pace to ensure robust measures are rapidly implemented to eradicate the damage being inflicted on people's lives by profit-centred multi-national corporations, especially in our poorest communities."

Jenni Minto, Scotland's public health minister, said: "We welcome the re-introduction of the UK-wide Tobacco and Vapes Bill to UK Parliament which, once passed, will help us to achieve our ambitious target of a tobacco-free Scotland by 2034.

"Smoking causes huge harms to individuals, their families and loved ones, and has wider impacts on the NHS and society.

"It is a major contributor to health inequalities - which is why our shared goal is to eradicate tobacco use."

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