Scotland's private-sector firms see output and orders fall again - reports

Published 11th Sep 2016

The demand for the goods and services of Scotland's private-sector firms has continued to fall, two separate business report have found.

Bank of Scotland recorded a fall in output and new orders in manufacturing and the service sector in August, while outstanding business levels were also down.

It follows performance for July which had the most marked decline in new order intakes since August 2012.

However, there was an increase in staff levels and selling prices which were at a 25-month high.

The figures are contained in the bank's latest purchasing managers' index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit.

It keeps track of the month-on-month changes in combined manufacturing and services output - and found that fell to 49.1, slightly below July's figure of 49.2.

Meanwhile, the Business Trends Report by accountants and business advisers BDO LLP recorded that business output - which reflects companies' orders for the three months ahead - has fallen to 97.4 from 98.2 and is below the 104.5 recorded in August last year.

Nick Laird, regional managing director, Bank of Scotland commercial banking, said: Scotland's economic performance continued to face headwinds during August, as the private sector remained in contraction.

Both output and new business fell for the second month in a row, while Scottish firms faced further cost pressures.

It was good news for jobs and selling, though, with the rates of increase in workforce numbers and output prices both up to 17-month and 25-month highs respectively.''

However, the BDO report did find increasing confidence among businesses.

It said Scottish businesses are finding that the post-Brexit slump has not been as severe as expected''.

Last month, confidence was at a three-year low but is now up to 98.7 from 97.9.

Martin Gill, Head of BDO LLP in Scotland, said: After the immediate Brexit scare, businesses appear to be gaining confidence in Scotland and have found that, for most of us, it's back to business as usual.

The Brexit decision was always going to produce winners and losers and it is clear that for some businesses it has been a boon - exporters for example - but for others there remains considerable uncertainty.

However, it is clear that there remain issues with the Scottish economy which predate the Brexit vote and there are concerns that long-term uncertainty over Scotland's and the UK's role in Europe is likely to dent business confidence further in the future.

Scotland has wider economic issues over the continuing financial difficulties in the North Sea and its impact on the economy of the North East and further afield.

This bounce in confidence is welcome and indicates that Brexit can offer opportunity for many businesses. However, I do believe that uncertainty means that the respective governments at Holyrood and Westminster must prioritise taking advantage of cheap borrowing costs to invest in infrastructure and protect the growth of our economy as we move closer to exit negotiations.''