How long will Scotland's schools stay closed with Covid-19?

The First Minister will give MSPs the latest assessment today

Author: Rob WallerPublished 2nd Feb 2021

The First Minister will give an update later on when pupils could go back to school in Scotland, but Tay FM understands it will be March at the earliest before a phased return takes place.

The Scottish Government has already said the current rules will last until at least the middle of February but Nicola Sturgeon's statement to MSPs on Covid-19 restrictions will provide some detail on "other steps we are planning to take'', the First Minister said.

These include going further than current proposals by the UK for quarantine hotels and other measures aimed at making current travel rules "more effective''.

Most pupils in Scotland are currently taking part in online learning, with only those deemed vulnerable and the children of key workers attending school.

At the last review on January 19 the Scottish Government said the earliest date schools could possibly open for pupils who are not vulnerable or children of key workers was being pushed back to at least mid-February.

It's understood primary 1 to 3 pupils and fourth, fifth and sixth year pupils would be phased back first.

Teachers urge caution

Teaching union the Educational Institute of Scotland has urged the Scottish Government to err on the side of caution before planning school reopening and urged it "not to gamble with school safety''.

Its general secretary Larry Flanagan told Tay FM: "We don't want a situation where the schools reopen and the R number starts to rise again and then we have to go into a further lockdown.

"The fact the UK Government has indicated mid-March as its target for schools to reopen - and that's a body not renowned for its caution - is a bit of a yardstick.

"The other big issue is the evidence around the increased transmissibility of the new variant among young people has to be examined very carefully.

Joint Council Leader for East Dunbartonshire Andrew Polson, disagrees, and told us it's important to get kids back to school sooner: "Even the Covid expert advisors to the Scottish Government are telling us that the harm of keeping children out of the classroom is being serious underestimated, and - more importantly - the risk of pupils transmitting Covid is being significantly overplayed.

Mental health concerns

"Research has recently shown that five pupils in every classroom are likely to need clinical support because of lockdown mental health deterioration, and more than a quarter of teenagers are showing symptoms of anxiety and depression laying bare the impact of the lockdown on the young.

"We are sacrificing the education and welfare of our young people, particularly those in the senior phase of secondary school. They've got exams to do, they've got assessments to do, and it's imperative fourth, fifth and sixth years get back to school as soon as possible."

Nicola Sturgeon said that Tuesday's statement will cover some of the measures the Scottish Government will take to "help us control the virus as we continue to suppress it, and in time gradually start to ease the lockdown restrictions.''

She said on Monday that "the current lockdown is working'' as infections are falling - with 848 new cases recorded in Scotland in the previous 24 hours, and a daily test positivity rate of 9.5%.

The First Minister added: "That said, case numbers are still high, too high, much higher than we would want them to be, so we need to get them down further - then we need to keep them as low as possible.''

When will lockdown be relaxed?

Public health expert Professor Linda Bauld, from Edinburgh University, agrees any easing of restrictions is some way off.

"I think we will return to the levels system in due course," she says. "But the opening up of non-essential retail and hospitality is going to happen much more slowly this time just because governments are being so cautious.

"We're going to need many more weeks of consistent reduction until you see a significant reopening of sectors of the economy and that's incredibly difficult to hear. But it's important we do that because in a number of week's time we'll begin to see the benefits of the vaccination programme.

"We need a clear road map and that means government will be under pressure to give some timelines for easing and also indicate what the phasing of easing might be."

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