Combination of Covid/flu could overwhelm our NHS this winter, South West officials warn
The region's medical director says there could be 60,000 deaths from flu alone
Last updated 3rd Nov 2021
NHS services in the South West could be overwhelmed this winter by a combination of coronavirus and traditional flu.
That was the warning delivered during a special briefing with our region's health officials, who say the UK could see 60,000 deaths from flu alone because restrictions have gone and our immune systems are weaker.
They are urging us all to get our Covid vaccines if we have not done so already, as well as the flu jab if we are eligible.
The government is not enforcing any restrictions on social gatherings right now, but health officials are urging people to continue to wear masks and stick to social distancing.
Doctor Michael Marsh is the South West's medical director with NHS Improvement and said: "To give a bit more context (to the 60,000 figure) usually its in the order of 10-12,000 deaths we expect to see.
"The data comes from national modelling teams.
"Public Health England are often behind those but through the last 20 months there's been various academic groups and the government all working together.
"Based on what we know of vulnerability behaviours, there's a modelling and suggestion it could be much larger".
Dr Marsh said it is his hope that by getting the message out there now, public action like getting vaccinated and wearing masks can avoid the NHS collapsing in the coming months.
Can the NHS cope?
Hospitals all across our region already find themselves under severe pressure, with coronavirus numbers at some of their highest levels throughout the whole pandemic.
In October the Royal Cornwall Hospital declared a critical incident due to extreme pressure.
Similar situations are ongoing at other hospitals across the entire region and patients are being urged not to call 999 unless it is a genuine emergency.
As of Tuesday 2nd November, Cornwall's hospitals were treating 61 patients with Covid which is up by 20 on the total at the end of last week.
Despite his bleak warning, Dr Marsh insisted that the NHS can and will manage the pressure it is under.
"Yes they (hospitals) can cope because that's what usually happens", Dr Marsh said.
"But what we're really concerned (about) is that because of the combination of what is the current situation, with the potential for a larger wave of flu is, what we want to do is prepare for the fact that you could be overwhelmed and stop that happening".
Dr March is calling on individual members of the public to do more to prevent infections.
He added: "I have a real belief in the British public that we tend to be good at dealing with crises and rising to the occasion, so absolutely, the hope would be that the public will support us in making their efforts to do the right thing to decrease the chance of services becoming overwhelmed".
Should restrictions be brought back in?
When asked, Dr Marsh declined to say whether the government should reinforce old restrictions like the mandatory wearing of masks and social distancing.
Instead, he reiterated his point that he would like the see the public "do the right thing" themselves, but admitted conversations on restrictions are happening.
"Those discussions are ongoing between national teams, so NHS England and Improvement, the chief executive, medical director and our colleagues in the public health department", he said.
"Those discussions are ongoing. I'm not party to them, but I know Chris Whitty as the chief medical officer is making sure those discussions are ongoing.
"My personal view is, I've continued to wear a mask whenever I go out, I continue to be conscious about trying to follow the two metre rule, so I think there is still a lot we can do as the public that doesn't require government action".
The flu vaccine programme
One of the things those that are eligible can do is get the flu vaccine this Winter, which Dr Marsh and others are insisting we do.
As part of an awareness campaign the NHS in the South West has released a video featuring a young boy who was almost killed by flu.
Dr Marsh said: "We can all play our part in preparing for the flu season," Dr Marsh said.
"There are those of us who are eligible for the flu vaccine and who should take those up".
He also says people must get their Covid booster jabs as well, adding one will not fight both illnesses.
Information about winter vaccinations in Cornwall can be found on NHS Kernow's website.