Covid-19 'R' rate drops below one but cases remain 'dangerously high'
It means there are fewer infections
Last updated 24th May 2022
Scientists think the coronavirus epidemic is now shrinking as they believe the reproductive rate – the R – for coronavirus has fallen to below 1 across the UK.
A subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) put the R at 0.8 to 1.0, down from 1.2 to 1.3 last week.
The number represents how many people an infected person will pass the virus on to - so if it is below 1, the infection is retreating
The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) said the number of new infections is now shrinking by between 1% and 4% every day.
Levels remain 'dangerously high'
Statistics show all regions of England have seen decreases in the R number and growth rate estimates compared with last week, and R is below or around 1 in every region.
However, scientists advising Government warned that case levels “remain dangerously high”.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the maths faculty at the University of Cambridge, said the drop in R is “very encouraging news”.
He said the decline in positive cases has been slow but cases are “nearly half what they were three weeks ago, which is enormously hopeful”.
Drop in the number of coronavirus infections
This comes as data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey shows there has been a slight drop in the number of people infected with coronavirus in England after lockdown measures were introduced.
The ONS estimated one in 55 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between January 10 and 16, down from one in 50 people for the Christmas period of December 27 to January 2.
The slight fall comes as the new variant of coronavirus, which is highly transmissible, continues to put pressure on hospitals.
The ONS data is from a random sample of people, with 600,000 tests carried out over the last six weeks, including those with no symptoms.
It does not include care homes, hospitals or other institutional settings.
Sarah Crofts, senior statistician for the survey, said: “In England we have seen a slight decrease in the percentage of people testing positive. However, rates remain high and we estimate the level of infection is still over one million people. The picture across the UK is mixed.”
£500 for a positive test?
It comes as Downing Street said there are “no plans” to go ahead with a proposal to pay £500 to everyone who tests positive for coronavirus in order to increase the number of people abiding by quarantine rules.
Scientific advisers had welcomed the suggestion of more financial support but Treasury sources were adamant the plan will not go ahead, with one telling the PA news agency bluntly: “Won’t happen.”