Analysis Corner: Where goals are coming from in the Premiership

Analysis by Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)

“Goals win games”. A statement as clichéd as it is true. The work of every football coach, when it really comes down to it, is how to best maximise their team’s chances of scoring goals, and minimise their chances of conceding them.

Therefore, when analysing teams in the Scottish Premiership, goals are a useful thing to study. This week, I’ve done some analysis on every goal scored and conceded by every Scottish Premiership club this season to see if any patterns emerge. Here’s what I found:

Aberdeen:

Shooting from distance in football is generally not a good idea. Generally, it takes around 30 shots from distance to score one goal. That’s just over a 3% chance of success- not great odds at all. However, this season, shots from distance have been both friend and foe of Derek McInnes’ men. No team has scored more from range this season (5), nor conceded as many (5).

Aberdeen aren’t a side who have much joy from headers, having scored just twice from them this season. However, a headed shot has only a 2% chance of going in, so their lack of aerial potency may be no bad thing. Finally, Aberdeen are set piece specialists, having scored eleven times from a dead ball this season: more than any other side.

Celtic:

If shooting from outside the box is so bad, then your only real option is to shoot inside the box. The central channel is a particularly sweet spot, with a shot from here three times more likely to go in than a shot from the outer channels. Celtic are really good at getting shots away from this location, creating 118 such chances this season.

Of these 118 chances, they’ve scored 36 of them. They create the most opportunities from the best areas- it’s no surprise they’ve opened up such a lead at the top.

The only word of caution for Rodgers’ side is that they’ve conceded 70% of their open play goals from one on one situations. However, this may be a tactical concession in order to be able to have so many men playing high up the park.

Dundee:

The Dark Blues are having real issues defending near post crosses this season, losing five goals through this way. They also concede a lot of headers, which account for 30% of their goals conceded

Going forwards, Dundee definitely prefer the right hand side, setting up four goals from this channel, compared to just one on the left.

Hamilton:

The New Douglas Park side are having issues with getting shots away from dangerous areas this season. Of their fifteen non-penalty goals, just ten have come from the central channel of the box. That’s the joint lowest in the league, and perhaps indicates either a lack of movement from the forwards or a lack of creativity from the midfield.

In better news, only Aberdeen have conceded fewer goals from one on one situations. However, when you take the above into account, it may be that a deep midfield has cost them in attack this year.

Hearts:

Hearts take a lot of good shots from good areas. They’ve scored nine from their opponent’s six-yard box, indicating that they have the creativity to unlock defences. Hearts have taken the second most shots in the league, and are tied with Celtic for shots on target, albeit having played three games more. Their quantity and quality of shooting is good- surely pleasing news for Ian Cathro.

A potential point of criticism is that the Jambos are out of possession for 11 seconds on average when they concede a goal. Optimists might say it means they’re making opponents work hard for their goals. However, 11 seconds should be plenty of time to set a defence.

Inverness:

Inverness are actually pretty good in attack. Only Celtic, Hearts and Rangers have taken more shots, while only the top four have scored more goals. They score from good locations, attack through the middle, and have the longest build up play in the league. This is an attacking system which should be working.

However, they’re second bottom for a reason. No other team has conceded as many goals as Inverness this term, with Richie Foran’s side conceding around twice a game on average. On a not unrelated note, no team concedes more goals from the danger zone- the central channel of the box. If Foran can fix this, Inverness may well end up amongst the top six.

Kilmarnock:

When Killie regain possession, they look to get it up the park very quickly. On average, their goals have come after just 6.6 seconds of possession- the fastest in the league. Despite this, Killie take the least shots and score the least goals in the league.

At the other end of the pitch, they concede the most shots, while only Inverness have let in more goals. Ten of them have been from set pieces, which should be an immediate point of focus for the Rugby Park side.

Motherwell:

Motherwell are the one on one kings of the Scottish Premiership. 14 of Well’s 17 open play goals this season have come from putting a man through one on one with the opposition goalie. At a rate of 82%, that’s by far and away the highest in the league.

However, a word of warning for Mark McGhee’s side is that they’ve conceded 7 goals from the right hand side of the box, compared to 4 from the left.

Partick Thistle:

Partick Thistle are pretty good at set pieces. They lead the league for goals scored from indirect free kicks (4) and are joint top for corners (3). Over a quarter of all goals in this league come from set pieces, so it’s a good thing to be good at.

They’re also the most lopsided team in the league, with over half of their goals coming from the right hand side (they’ve only scored once from the left).

The concern for Alan Archibald’s men is that they’re also the team most vulnerable to counter attacks in the league. On average, the Jags concede just over 8 seconds after losing possession. That’s 30% less time than the league average.

Rangers:

Of the top four sides, Rangers are the team who enjoy attacking from wide areas the most. 40% of their goals come from either the right or the left hand side, compared to figures of 35%, 26% and 29% for Aberdeen, Celtic and Hearts respectively. However, Rangers have lost twice as many goals from their right wing than from their left, which could explain James Tavernier’s recent transition into midfield.

The other thing about Rangers is that they love a back post cross like no one else in the league, having scored eight times from such positions this season already.

Ross County:

Ross County are quite a clumsy side, having given away five penalties already this season. They’ve also lost more goals to one on one situations than anyone in the league so far (14), and conceded ten goals from their own six-yard box- again the highest in the league.

Going forward, Ross County are a team who use a lot of lofted balls into the box. Eight of their sixteen non penalty goals this season have come from headers- more than any other side.

St Johnstone:

Remember that stuff I said about heading being bad? They say that every rule has an exception, and in this case it’s St Johnstone. Half of all goals conceded by Saints have come from headers (8), while they’ve only scored once from them.

If you’re playing Tommy Wright’s side, the back post is a particular area of joy for teams, who have scored seven times from there this season.

For more analysis like this, follow Dougie Wright on Twitter - @dougie_analysis

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