Holyrood Election: 100 Days To Go
Experts tell us what to expect
We are now just 100 days away from possibly the most important Holyrood election to date.
But what should we be on the look out for?
Those in the know have given us their predictions and thoughts on the current state of play.
Independent polling expert Mark Diffley believes the big question will be whether the SNP can get an overall majority:
“We are likely to have one of three outcomes. The first is that the current polling suggests the SNP will have an overall majority, a bit like the 2011 to 2016 Parliament. The second outcome is that the SNP will be the biggest party with no overall majority but has a pro-independence majority between the SNP and the Green Party. The third outcome is the SNP being the biggest party but having no independence majority. In any of those scenarios, the SNP would retain power.
And he explains why an overall majority for the SNP would be significant:
“One, for the obvious reasons, how easy or difficult it is to get its policies through Parliament and the other is about the likelihood of another independence referendum in the next Parliament.”
But could internal disputes impact the SNP’s election prospects?
James Mitchell, Professor of Public Policy at Edinburgh University, believes the campaign will help unite the party:
“I don’t recall the SNP being as fractional as it is at the moment and as divided and as miserable, frankly, in a very long time, probably going back to the early 1980s while simultaneously doing so well in the polls, but I think there is nothing quite like an election campaign to bring a political party together.”
With polling continuing to show the SNP being on course to win an overall majority, focus then shifts to who will be the official opposition after May 6th.
That is much less clear as Mark Diffley explains:
“At the moment, the Tories are marginally ahead but, in some polls, Labour are neck and neck.”
He believes that Douglas Ross has a Boris Johnson problem:
“It is really difficult for Douglas Ross at the moment. What will tend to impact on him is, as far as Scottish voters are concerned, a really unpopular Prime Minister and Government in Westminster and that will prove to be a drag on his personal ratings and the performance of the Scottish Conservatives.”
Professor Mitchell shares a similar view:
“The Conservatives are struggling because they have a leader in London that is deeply unpopular and they have a Government in London that is deeply unpopular and I think that is undermining any effort made by Douglas Ross and the Scottish Conservatives.”
Could that open the door for Scottish Labour, who are currently in the midst of a leadership contest following the resignation of Richard Leonard?
Mark Diffley believes the contest has come at a good time for the party:
“It provides them with a platform that they may not have had to be in the public eye, to get more attention. The contest is really important and it is absolutely possible (to finish second) and the polling has shown that there are indications that they are catching up with the Conservatives and even in one or two polls, taking over.”
Professor Mitchell thinks, whoever is elected Scottish Labour leader, they need to have a clear stance on the constitution:
“If they are seen to be on the side of the Tories again in saying “no” to another referendum and come across as hard-line unionists, that will not help them. It won’t help them win any votes back from the SNP, it may mean they can win back votes from the Tories, but that is not much of an ambition.”
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