Almost half of Covid cases in Grampian linked to 'widespread community transmission'

Almost half of all Covid-19 infections in Grampian cannot be linked to a known outbreak – suggesting widespread community transmission in the area.

NHS Grampian’s director of public health, Susan Webb has warned accelerating spread in the north-east will impact on health care services, in the coming weeks, and urged members of the public to carefully consider their plans over the festive season in an effort to avoid a potential “crisis after Christmas”.

She said: “Aberdeen City continues to see the number of COVID-19 cases increase. Of the new cases each week we can link 55% of them to clusters or outbreaks – so we can explain them, we can take action to break the chains for transmission and reduce further spread.

“However, 45% of the new cases are not connected to known situations. It is for this reason that we need to involve everyone in helping us to stop the spread of Covid-19. The case numbers we are seeing at present are not solely the result of outbreaks in care homes or workplaces. This virus is circulating widely, and we are seeing community spread in our towns and villages.

“In the last week, we saw the rate per 100,000 in Aberdeen rise from 76 to 122, a 60% jump, and together with a smaller rise Aberdeenshire. Case positivity was up 3.9% to 6.1% as well, so we are rightly concerned about how fragile the situation is in the north-east.

“I am asking everyone in the north-east of Scotland to ask themselves if they are honestly taking the same level of precautions that they were back in April and May? The virus poses no less a threat to us now than it did then.”

With the Scottish Government issuing updated guidance around festive gatherings, the director of public health added that people “people need to think hard about what they are doing this Christmas” and “is it worth the risk?”

“The only way to make Christmas risk-free is to stay in your own household and not mix,” she said.

“The best advice is to spend Christmas in your own home, with your own household; if you are meeting others, do it outdoors; only meet indoors if it is absolutely essential and limit the duration of those interactions.

“If you do decide to form a bubble, only do it for one day and do not stay overnight, unless it’s absolutely unavoidable. It is vital different households in bubbles stay two metres apart, ensure windows are open, wear face coverings when not eating or drinking, effective hand and respiratory hygiene, limit the time you are together and if you feel in anyway unwell, don’t mix with people. That said, these measures will not guarantee the infection will not spread within these gatherings – the only way to do that is avoid having them.

“Further spread will place further significant pressure on the region’s health care staff and facilities. Ultimately it will sadly lead to more deaths as well. We could see a crisis after Christmas if we don’t all pull in the right direction.

“The easing of restrictions for a short period does not oblige any of us to gather indoors with other households. To do so remains extremely risky. We know you hold the people working in health & social care in high esteem. You turned out in your thousands to clap for carers during the first wave of the pandemic. The greatest gift you can give the NHS this year is to limit the spread of this virus."

The director of public health warned that further increased spread over Christmas could see restrictions on the region increased even further in the weeks after.

“If we do not do all we can and spread continues to increase, it is eminently probable that the Scottish Government could place further restrictions on the region in the weeks ahead to control the spread,” she added.

“It is vital everyone continue to play their part now, and in the coming weeks, to stop the situation in the region from worsening and the pressure on our health care facilities from increasing further. If we all work together we can save lives

“The start of a vaccination programme is light at the end of the tunnel - but we are still in that tunnel and will stay there for some months to come. We have all got to make changes to our behaviour. We all have to play our part. Anyone can catch COVID-19 and anyone can spread it.”