Who will win whe race for 2nd?

The SPFL’s decision to implement a winter break this season means that for four weeks in January, clubs will be able to rest up. New signings can be eased into the fold, managers have a chance to tweak their tactics, and everyone else can generally catch their breath. However, the by-product of this is a hectic run up. Between now and the New Year, some clubs face eight fixtures. That works out at roughly a game every four days.

By the end of this period, we should have a clearer picture on the “best of the rest” race. Rangers, Aberdeen and Hearts are the main contenders, and all will face each other in this period. Just one point separates Aberdeen (24) from Rangers (23), with Hearts (19) further behind but with a game in hand. I thought it would be useful to use my column this week to analyse each of the three teams before they all do battle with each other.

Despite pre-season proclamations of a title fight, Rangers have simply not shown the kind of consistency required to challenge a Celtic side who have only dropped points once this season. From thirteen games, Rangers are yet to string together three wins in a row, and have won just twice outside of Govan. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that from every team Rangers have dropped points to, either Aberdeen or Hearts have dropped points to them as well.

Indeed, Rangers actually have the most efficient defence in the league. When out of possession, it takes Rangers’ opponents over 15 minutes to create a clear cut chance. This statistic becomes more impressive when you consider that Rangers’ 59% average possession means that opponents are limited to an average of between two and three clear cut chances per game.

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Unfortunately for Rangers, it is at the other end of the pitch where they really struggle. Their attack is bang average as far as creating clear cut chances goes, needing nearly 10 minutes of the ball for every clear cut chance created. Even teams like Motherwell, Hamilton and Inverness are producing chances more regularly than that.

Similarly, Aberdeen have faced real problems in attack this year. Only Ross County, Dundee and Kilmarnock have taken fewer shots than the Dons. Luckily for Aberdeen fans, they have the highest conversion rate in the league, with 16% of shots turning into goals (that’s double Rangers’ rate of 8%). However, moving forward, it is dubious from an analytical standpoint whether that’s going to hold up.

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Most teams average between 12 and 14% in terms of conversion rates throughout the season. The law of averages suggest that Aberdeen’s conversion rate should drop slightly, which means that their midfield need to start producing more opportunities for their front men if they are to keep scoring goals and winning games.

However, in defence, Aberdeen can relax. Only Celtic have conceded fewer shots, shots on target and goals. This means that Aberdeen are doing a great job of a) minimising their opponent’s chances to shoot and b) minimising the quality of the opportunity when their opponents do find a way through to goal.

Given Aberdeen and Rangers’ strength at the back, Hearts will need to arrest a trend that has developed since Sam Nicholson’s injury in October. According to Matt Rhein of the Backpass Rule, Nicholson is Hearts’ best player in terms of the quality and quantity of chances he creates. Since Nicholson’s injury, the Jambos’ attacking production has slumped.

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Shots have halved, shots on target have halved and clear cut chances have halved. With a conversion rate of 12% holding steady throughout the season, this has led to Hearts being winless in three game. Their defence has shipped goals all season, and was only being saved by attacking production to rival Celtic. If you stop taking shots, you stop winning games, as Hearts have found out to their cost.

Indeed, just four of Hearts’ twenty-one goals this season have been scored by their strikers. Big summer signings Connor Sammon and Tony Watt only have two goals between them, while defender Calum Paterson leads their goalscoring charts on four goals. On one hand, it’s a good thing for defenders and midfielders to chip in with goals, but on the other, Hearts’ need to get more of a return from their front men if they are to stay in the race for second.