Big rise in unemployment in Scotland

Author: Rob WallerPublished 16th Jun 2020

Scotland's unemployment rate is now the highest in the UK as the latest figures set out the the impact of lockdown between February and April.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the unemployment rate for people aged over 16 rose to 4.6% (127,000) over the period, a 1.1% increase on the previous quarter, against the UK rate of 3.9%.

The number of people aged 16 to 64 in employment in the three months ending in April fell to 74.3% (2.556 million), a 0.7% drop on the previous quarter.

The figures reflect the impact of a month of lockdown, which started on March 23.

Business minister Jamie Hepburn said: "Between February and April 2020, Scotland's employment rate estimate fell over the quarter to 74.3% and the unemployment rate estimate rose over the quarter to 4.6%.

"These are the first labour market statistics to include a full month of lockdown measures, and show clearly the scale of the challenge facing Scotland as a result of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

"I know that many people will be feeling a deep sense of anxiety about their livelihoods.

"Keeping people in work while supporting those who have lost their jobs will continue to be at the heart of our thinking as we carefully reopen the economy.

"Scotland's labour market has changed drastically since the lockdown measures were imposed.''

He added: "While the Scottish Government has welcomed the support schemes from HMRC during this time, and their extension, it is important that we ensure this support continues to be offered for as long as required, particularly in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, culture, and oil and gas, which will not have fully recovered by October.

"That is why we are urging the UK Government to work with us to ensure support reflects what is required in Scotland.

"Failure to do so will put the economy at a competitive disadvantage in recovering from this crisis, and could result in additional job losses.

"We must not allow that to happen.''

Dr Stuart McIntyre, head of research at economic think tank the Fraser of Allander Institute, said it expects "much more substantial increases in unemployment'' in the months to come.

He warned those who become unemployed through this period will experience a "very challenging economy in which to find new work''.

"The Scottish unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in the latest data, up 1.1%-points over the past three months,'' he said.

"While this is higher than the UK unemployment rate, which sits at 3.9%, it's important to remember that confidence intervals around both these numbers mean that the range of values for both of these overlap - so we must be cautious about what we conclude.

"While some may be surprised that the data today did not show a greater increase in unemployment or fall in employment, it is important to remember that the furlough and self-employment support schemes are still in place and these are keeping many people in employment.''

He added: "The latest data suggests over three quarters of a million people in Scotland are being supported by the various UK Government furlough schemes for employees and the self-employed.

"We are already seeing an increase in the number of planned redundancies being announced across Scotland, an increase in those receiving support through Universal Credit, and across the UK we have seen a fall in job vacancies and hours worked.''

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