More leaked Government figures on the impact of Brexit on Scotland

Growth could fall by 9% if we don't get a trade deal

Published 8th Feb 2018

Leaving the EU without a trade deal would cut Scottish economic growth by 9%, according to leaked government figures.

The analysis predicted that economic growth north of the border would also be negative in two other scenarios.

If the UK gets a free trade deal it would be 6% lower and if it stays in the single market it would 2.5% lower.

Leaving with no deal would cut growth by 9%, the figures predict.

MPs have been reading the documents, which were prepared by the Department for Exiting the EU, under controlled conditions, but the figures have been leaked.

The "no deal'' figure is slightly worse than predicted in Scottish Government research published last month.

According to the Scottish Government research, if the UK failed to reach a deal over Brexit and was forced to revert to WTO rules, GDP in Scotland would be about 8.5% - or £12.7 billion - lower by 2030 compared to continued full EU membership.

Meanwhile, under a free trade agreement it is expected Scotland's GDP would be 6.1% lower - or £9 billion in 2016 cash terms - by 2030.

Staying in the single market would have the least damaging economic impact, with GDP forecast to fall by 2.7% - £4 billion in 2016 cash terms - by 2030.

The SNP has called on the UK government to publish its Brexit analysis in full following the leak.

Peter Grant MP said: "The leaked UK government's internal Brexit analysis makes for utterly grim reading, and Theresa May must now end the shameful secrecy surrounding the UK government's Brexit plans and publish the papers in full - which we now know will have catastrophic consequences for Scotland and the UK's economy.

"The Tories must now explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scaremongering when their own government was covering up similar findings.

"The leak underlines the case that remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union is the only way to minimize that economic harm.

"It's time Theresa May stood up to the Brexit hard-liners and started putting jobs and living standards first.''

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie added: "The Government's own research is now showing that Brexit will be an economic disaster for every part of the UK. We need to stop Brexit before it is too late.

"The Conservatives are putting the public in the firing line because they are hell bent on Brexit.

"People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit.''

A UK Government spokesman said: "This document does not represent Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations.

"As Ministers clearly set out in the House, this is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress.

"We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK. We are not expecting a no deal scenario."