Nicola Sturgeon's turbulent year: 12 months on from her shock resignation

Nicola Sturgeon dropped a political bombshell on this day last year before months of turmoil

Author: Rob WallerPublished 15th Feb 2024

A year on from Nicola Sturgeon's shock resignation as Scottish First Minister polling experts say her decision to quit as leader of the party and the Scottish Government has accelerated a decline in the SNP's opinion poll leads.

However, support for Scottish independence has hardly changed at all in the 12 months since Ms Sturgeon's announcement at Bute House sent shock waves through UK politics.

Nicola Sturgeon's year

Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation on 15 February 2023 only a month after giving interviews saying she had "plenty left in the tank" as leader.

Her preferred successor, Humza Yousaf, beat off competition from then finance secretary Kate Forbes; and former minister Ash Regan, in the SNP leadership election.

In April her husband, and former SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell was arrested in connection with the Operation Branchform probe into the SNP's finances. He was released without charge pending further investgation.

In June, it was Nicola Sturgeon's turn to be arrested and she was also later released without charge pending further investigation and telling journalists; "I am certain I have done nothing wrong."

The SNP lost its first electoral test since Ms Sturgeon's resignation in October when Labour's Michael Shanks won the Westminster by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

In January 2024 Nicola Sturgeon appeared before the UK Covid-19 Inquiry in Edinburgh. She spoke of policy regrets and admitted WhatsApp messages were deleted but insisted it was in line with Scottish Government guidance.

One bright spot for Nicola Sturgeon came in October when, at the age of 53, she passed her driving test at the first attempt having decided to take lessons in the wake of her resignation from government. She said it is never too late to try something new.

SNP Polling dip

Pollster Mark Diffley, a former director of Ipsos Mori in Edinburgh, said the drop in support for the SNP and the related upturn in support for Labour meant the upcoming general election would be the most competitive in Scotland since 2010.

He said: "What seems to have happened is that Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and then, equally as impactfully, the police investigation into the party finances, have sort of accelerated the fall in support that the SNP has seen."

He highlighted that there were signs of SNP support falling before Ms Sturgeon's Bute House announcement.

Mr Diffley said: "In the last year, basically they've lost around sort of 10 or 12 percentage points in support.

"So, gone from in the polls an average of sort of mid 40s, down to an average of being in the mid 30s."

Labour gains predicted

If the current polls are borne out in an election, he said, Labour would make "significant gains" particularly in the central belt of Scotland.

Anas Sarwar's party is picking up voters from "completely different directions", Mr Diffley said, with former Conservative and SNP voters indicating they could vote Labour.

"About one in five of 2019 Tory voters in Scotland, have now come to Labour," Mr Diffley said.

"And about one in five SNP voters from 2019 have gone to Labour as well.

"So Labour is picking up in pretty much equal measure, disaffected Tories and disaffected SNP voters."

Keeping such a coalition together will present a "challenge" in the later Holyrood election campaign, he said.

Nicola Sturgeon's year

Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation on 15 February 2023 only a month after giving interviews saying she had "plenty left in the tank" as leader.

Her preferred successor, Humza Yousaf, beat off competition from then finance secretary Kate Forbes; and former minister Ash Regan, who had quit the Government in opposition to gender law reform plans, in the leadership election.

WATCH: Your questions to SNP leadership candidates

In April her husband, and former SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell was arrested by police in connection with the Operation Branchform probe into the SNP's finances.

Mr Murrell was questioned for almost 12 hours before being released without charge pending further investigation.

The party's Edinburgh headquarters was also searched and a motorhome was seized from the Fife home of Mr Murrell's 92-year-old mother.

Former party treasurer, Colin Beattie, was also later arrested and released without charge.

In June, it was Nicola Sturgeon's turn to be arrested and she was also later released without charge pending further investigation and telling journalists; "I am certain I have done nothing wrong."

The SNP lost its first first electoral test since Ms Sturgeon's resignation in October when Labour's Michael Shanks won the Westminster by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West triggered by a recall petition against former MP Margaret Ferrier, who was found guilty of breaching coronavirus lockdown rules.

At the first weeks of 2024 the former First Minister made a second appearance in front of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry, this time sitting in Edinburgh.

In a tearful all-day evidence session Ms Sturgeon spoke of policy regrets.

She admitted WhatsApp messages were deleted but insisted it was in line with Scottish Government guidance and all salient points were added to the official record.

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