Oxfordshire pub owner warns of “crippling” state of hostility industry
It’s ahead of Rachel Reeves Spring Statement tomorrow
Last updated 25th Mar 2025
A pub owner from Oxfordshire is warning us about the “crippling” state of the hospitality industry, as he worries that he’ll be forced to close over the next five years if things don’t improve.
It’s ahead of Rachel Reeves Spring Statement which she will make to Parliament tomorrow afternoon, after Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).
“I expect all my businesses to be bust by 2030”
The Chancellor will update the country on her plans for the economy, but after committing to holding one budget a year (in the autumn), it is expected to be a more modest affair.
The speech comes only days before some of the changes set out in the Autumn Budget, which Tom Rainey feels “targets” the hospitality industry.
Mr Rainey owns two pubs in Oxford, he said: “It's going to be a triple whammy for hospitality industry.
“There’s going to be Employers National Insurance going up, nothing we can do about that. Minimum wage going up, and finally the business rates relief is coming down from 75% to 40%.”
Mr Rainey also warns that employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) could lead to widespread unemployment across the sector.
He says, “we were very much an employer of one out the door, one in the door. Now I've given a remit to my general managers to not hire unless 100% necessary. So, I think we will see unemployment going through the roof over the next year or two”.
He added: “I have a negative business plan where my businesses will go bust by 2030. So, if we carry on in this rate, I expect all my businesses to be bust by 2030. It's going to become dog-eat-dog out there and survival of the fittest.”
The Government says, “this increase in employer NICs raises revenue for the NHS and increases funding for contributory benefits like the State Pension, easing wider pressures on the public finances.
“It contributes to the government’s announcement of £22.6 billion in additional day-to-day spending over two years for the Department of Health and Social Care, including the NHS.”
Mr Rainey also hopes that the Government will improve the state of the hospitality sector, “The only way I can see them bringing life back to the industry is by dropping VAT within the hospitality industry, but it’s going to take them a few years to realise and, in that time, there'll be a bloodbath on the high streets.”