Warning Greater Manchester's ICU capacity could be overwhelmed
Downing Street says Greater Manchester's intensive care capacity could be overwhelmed by Covid-19 within weeks.
Greater Manchester's intensive care capacity could be overwhelmed by Covid-19 within weeks, Downing Street has insisted, as it increased pressure on the region to accept Tier 3 coronavirus restrictions.
Projections produced by the Government suggested Manchester's hospitals risked being overwhelmed by November 12.
The Prime Minister's official spokesman told a Westminster briefing: "Cases in Greater Manchester continue to rise.
"In the over-60 age group, cases have tripled in the most recent 15 days of full data - there were 89 cases per 100,000 on September 27 compared to 282 per 100,000 on October 12.
"Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days.''
Currently the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is around 40% of that seen at the peak of the first wave.
But, assuming a 14-day doubling time - the "best case'' according to the SPI-M modelling group - all free intensive care capacity would be used by October 28 and would pass the peak of the first wave by November 2.
The projections suggest Covid patients would take up the entire current intensive care capacity by November 8 and the entire surge capacity by November 12.
Asked if that meant hospitals being overwhelmed, the spokesman said: "Yes, that's the entire surge ICU capacity.''
Talks continue for Tier 3 deal
The Prime Minister's official spokesman said talks with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and local leaders were continuing.
"If at all possible, we do want to engage constructively with Greater Manchester and agree on a way forward,'' the spokesman said.
But if agreement cannot be reached, the Government will need to intervene "in order to protect hospitals and save the lives of residents''.
The comments came after ministers insisted Greater Manchester's coronavirus status will end within days - either with a deal which could see tens of millions of pounds in extra funding for the region or with the imposition of harsh restrictions from Westminster.
Greater Manchester's leaders have resisted moving into Tier 3, which would see pubs and bars ordered to close as part of a package of strict measures - but Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said it was time for "decisive action''.
He said a range of support had been offered to the region, including "more resources for local councils'', greater involvement in contact tracing and the potential use of the military to assist local authorities.
Greater Manchester's mayor, Andy Burnham, has pressed for a Commons vote to break the "impasse''.
Testing trials underway in Manchester
Trials of new tests are taking place across England, including in coronavirus hotspots.
The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There are pilots taking place in the worst-affected regions, so that includes the North West, the North East and Yorkshire.
"Hospitals in Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle, Basingstoke and Southampton will be able to test asymptomatic NHS staff.''
Three of them - Southampton, Manchester and Basingstoke - are already able to start testing staff while the other four will be able to shortly.
The Lamp (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) tests give a result in 60-90 minutes.
The spokesman added: "We will also be sending the lateral flow tests - the swab tests that don't require a lab for processing - to care homes, schools and universities in the areas which have been hardest hit.''
Those tests can give a result in "potentially significantly less than an hour'' and have been compared to home pregnancy tests because of their ease of use.