Demand for new homes drops by third

It's since the mini-budget was announced by former Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng

Author: Jon BurkePublished 31st Oct 2022

Demand for new homes from first-time buyers has dropped by a third, since the former Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced his mini-budget.

That's according to measurements from property company, Zoopla.

As mortgage rates soared to highs of 6%, it put the biggest squeeze on new buyers since the late 1980s.

The company warned that "mortgage rates of 4% to 5% are likely to be the new norm", even after rates have dropped back in recent days.

Mortgage rates soared after the mini-budget, with many lenders pulling products from the market as they needed time to reprice them.

It came as investors were concerned that the Bank of England would be forced to keep upping its interest base rate if the Government pushed ahead with its policies.

Since then, the Government has been replaced and most of the policies abandoned, but rates are still set to rise according to market watchers - just not by as much as markets thought some weeks ago.

There have been big drops in new buyer interest in the South East where demand was down 40% and the West Midlands - down 38%.

There were lesser falls of 24% in Scotland and 20% in the North East of England.

"New buyer demand has dropped quickly in the face of higher borrowing costs, it's like the Christmas slowdown has come a month early," said Zoopla executive director, Richard Donnell.

"We don't expect to see any impact on pricing levels between now and December and this will only start to materialise in early 2023. It takes several months for pricing to adjust in the face of weaker demand."

The company said that house prices had grown 8.1% in the last year, amid high demand and low supply in recent months.

The number of homes for sale is 13% lower than the average over the last five years.

Mr Donnell said: "The most likely outcome for 2023 is that we see a fall in mortgage rates towards 4% with a modest decline in house prices of up to 5%.

"The labour market remains strong and the supply of homes for sale is below average creating a scarcity of homes for sale that will support pricing."

The cost of many other things has been rising:

Energy prices

The cost of energy is skyrocketing because of increased demand since economies opened up after months or years of coronavirus restrictions.
Most of our homes are gas-powered through central heating, and a large part of our electricity comes from gas too.
The price cap, which was designed to stop companies charging too much, is now setting the minimum amount you can pay, after looking at national and global supply factors.
Earlier this year, Ofgem decided 54% was a fair increase for energy companies to charge, pushing bills up to around £2000 per household.
It's thought it could go up to closer to £2500 a year if prices on the wholesale market continue to rise.

Petrol and diesel

Demand for petrol and diesel has done the same to prices at the pumps, which saw record amounts charged at filling stations throughout March.
Unleaded now regularly costs more than £1.60 a litre, and its more than £1.70 for diesel.
Wholesale prices are rising, as people return to workplaces after months or years of working from home, and demand for items in shops and online means fuel is in massive demand.
That means higher prices too.

Grocery shopping

The route items take to get to our supermarket shelves has also been disrupted by coronavirus, and new rules and red tape introduced because of Brexit.
That's pushed up prices too.
At the moment, prices are increasing by more than 5% on last year, which could hit as high as 8% later this month.

National insurance

The government announced last year they were pushing up the National Insurance rate to pay for social care.
For most people it comes directly out of your wages, just like tax.
A 1.25 percentage-point rise introduced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak will mean someone earning £20,000 per year will take home £89 less compared to last year, but a change to thresholds announced in the Spring Statement now means a typical employee will take home an extra £330.

Pay rises that don't match inflation

At any other time, we'd be celebrating the highest pay rises in a decade, with some staff seeing a 3% rise in their salaries this year.
But given inflation is currently higher than 5%, it actually means you're actually worse off, as your new pay amount won't match the increase in the things we want or need to buy.

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