Thousands of Long Covid cases expected to be diagnosed in Suffolk
It's thought the surge will follow on from the Omicron outbreak at Christmas
A surge of more than 17,000 new Long Covid diagnoses over 10 weeks is forecast for Suffolk, according to new modelling data.
Data published in Suffolk County Council’s health scrutiny papers said that “modellers believe we are about to see a surge in Long Covid cases mirroring the Omicron surge around Christmas time”.
The modelling indicates that up to March 1 2022 there were 12,685 cases of Long Covid in Suffolk, but the 10 weeks between March 1 and May 15 this year estimates a further 17,185.
It is believed to be as a result of the surge of the Omicron variant around Christmas last year, because there is a 12-week lag between having a positive Covid-19 case and having a Long Covid diagnosis.
While there is no diagnostic tests for Long Covid or a common definition, the key symptoms include continued shortness of breath or fatigue since having Covid-19, muscle ache or difficulty in concentrating.
The report said: “These high,and increasing, numbers follow the case rate trend we saw in December – remember there is a 12-week lag from Covid diagnosis to Long Covid diagnosis, which is defined here as symptoms continuing after 12 weeks.”
However, data for Long Covid estimates vary.
The report said that experimental national estimates range from 3% for tracking of specific symptoms up to 11.7% for self-reported symptoms, based on data up to August 1 last year.
That would put Suffok’s numbers between 1,600 and around 6,300, with around two thirds of the self-reported numbers expected to face adverse impacts on their day-to-day activities.
A study in The Lancet Infectious Diseases reported that Long Covid risks reduced by almost half for those who were double-jabbed, as well as reducing the chance of hospitalisation.
It comes as a record high number of UK Covid cases were reported in the week up to March 26, with an estimated 4.9million people.
Suffolk dashboard data for March 31 indicated the county had 929 daily cases, with a case rate of 1,104.5 per 100,000 people.
People with symptoms over 12 weeks can get a referral to the Suffolk and North East Essex Long Covid Assessment Service (SNELCAS) from their GP.
According to the council’s report , a virtual group programme with seven sessions around fatigue management and wellbeing can be offered.
It added: “SNELCAS signpost to relevant onward services if clinically required that might include, but is not limited to, chronic fatigue services, allied health
professionals service, speech and language therapy, dietetic services,
social prescribing resources, self-management support, wellbeing services including vocational support.
“The service will provide follow up to patients at 12 weeks and six months to measure outcomes.”