Calls that 'almost 20,000 GPs could leave in next 5 years' leaves Rutland health boss unsurprised

In 2022, 4,032 trainee GPs were accepted on to placements (Health Education England)

Author: Ellis MaddisonPublished 24th Nov 2022

Rutland health bosses are unsurprised that almost '20,000 GPs could leave the profession in the next 5 years', according to the Royal College of GPs.

It's after our recent Crisis at the Clinic investigation looked at the challenges facing local healthcare across Stamford and Rutland, and how patients were being affected.

A new study out today from the RCGPs shows tens of thousands of GPs could leave due to 'intense workload pressures'.

It comes after Health Education England published its new figures on the number of doctors entering training to become GPs.

In 2022, 4,032 trainee GPs were accepted on to placements, HEE said.

HEE said it had met the Government's trainee recruitment target for the fifth year running.

Professor Simon Gregory, medical director for primary and integrated care at HEE, said: "I am delighted that so many doctors have accepted their offer on GP specialty training programmes across England.

"There is no denying that it is a difficult time for the profession, with GPs under growing pressure as demand increases - but it is heartening that thousands of doctors are continuing to see general practice as a rewarding and valuable career."

But the RCGP are warning that more GPs are leaving the profession than entering it, and that current staff numbers "won't be enough" to meet current and future population needs.

A long time coming?

Chair of the Leicestershire and Rutland Local Medical Committee, told us the alarming estimate isn't surprising:

'The amount of NHS funding for General Practice had gone down and at the same time workload was going up - so the population was growing before the pandemic, and we were finding that there was more stress being put on GPs...'

'...GPs were gradually moving - they were going abroad, they were leaving general practice, and the younger doctors just want training.'

He added: 'If you go back to ten years ago when the funding was a lot better, in the commonwealth report - an international body - they actually rated the NHS as number 1 across the world for health services. It's no longer in that position at all.'

Workload worries

Professor Kamila Hawthorne, chair of the College, said: "It's really encouraging that so many doctors are accepting training places to become GPs in the future - but we have now reached a situation where more experienced GPs are leaving the profession than are entering it, and unfortunately, this won't be enough to meet the current or future healthcare needs of a growing and ageing population with increasingly complex health needs.

"A recent College survey suggested up to 19,000 GPs could leave the profession in the next five years due to the intensity of workload pressures, therefore we also need to see much more effort put into retaining the current GP workforce for longer."

Dr David Smith, chair of the GP trainees committee at the British Medical Association, said: "Since 2015 we have lost the equivalent of more than 1,800 full-time fully-qualified GPs in England, and the majority of these new recruits will take at least another three years to qualify.

"There is no point having record numbers coming in the front door if huge numbers are still leaving through the back."

Commenting on the new HEE figures, Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay said: "GPs makes a real difference to communities and I am delighted that once again we have hit our recruitment target and more medical students are choosing a career as a GP.

"This pipeline of talent will strengthen our growing primary care workforce helping patients get appointments and access the right service at the right time.

"I am hugely appreciative to GPs and their teams for all the hard work they do every day in caring for us and our loved ones."

The announcement comes after it was reported that Rishi Sunak's appointment letter to Mr Barclay dropped the target to recruit 6,000 more GPs in England by the end of 2024 - a Conservative manifesto pledge.

Former health secretary Sajid Javid said earlier this year that the Government would be unlikely to meet the commitment due to the number of GPs retiring early.

The Government's Autumn Budget set aside £8bn in funding for the NHS and adult social care from 2024-25.

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