"Party-gate allegations paint picture of a chaotic administration"
UEA politics expert says the accounts of parties at Number 10 during lockdowns could damage public confidence in Government
The recent accounts of parties having taken place at Number 10 Downing Street during the first and second lockdowns are hurting the Government's credibility, according to a political expert from the East of England.
Professor Alan Finlayson teaches political and social science at the University of East Anglia.
He explains that these allegations, taken alongside the claims of sleaze over the awarding of NHS contracts and the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's defence of MP Owen Patterson (accused of breaking lobbying rules) could all present his administration as self-serving.
"All of these things build up to create a picture of an administration that is more interested in what it can do for itself than what it can do for the country, and it creates a picture of an administration that has been chaotic in some ways, having parties all the time.
"It increases a lack of trust in the Government and a lack of faith that they are concerned with the interests of the country as a whole. It also furthers the argument that presents Mr Johnson as someone who is following one rule for himself and another rule for us."
He goes on to add that even if the Prime Minister were to see out this period of scrutiny and controversy, these allegations would undermine his future efforts in dealing with the pandemic or enforcing change.
"In the long term, it casts doubt on the lockdown rules altogether, in as much as if Government staff really believed that this was so terrible, why would they not adhere to these rules?
"I think that's particularly damaging, because then the mistrust begins to spread to the scientific advice and makes it very difficult for government to pursue a rational policy in relation to the pandemic and may well be something that comes back to haunt British politics in years to come.
"When governments begin to make statements about what we need to do to cope with something, people could say, 'Well, you didn't mean it last time' and then we're in real trouble."
The biggest challenge now for the Prime Minister will be to try and gain back the public's trust while also trying to keep MPs happy. Prof Finlayson believes that will be difficult as the two parties do not usually have converging interests.
"There is a very well-organised and vocal minority of his MPs, about 80 or so, who sit on the right of the party that have never liked lockdowns, don't believe Covid-19 is very serious and take similar positions on a range of issues like climate and immigration, which are not quite where the public sits on those issues.
"So the Prime Minister needs to find a way to steer between appeasing the public and getting his poll rating back up as well as pleasing members of his Parliament."
The Conservative Party's loss though could be the Labour Party and their leader Keir Starmer's gain. Data collected by YouGov show that Labour are ahead on opinion polls regarding public voting intentions, leading the Tories by 11 percent as of 13 January.
Prof Finlayson explains, "The Labour Party is doing better than it has done for a very long time but that would seem to be largely because of the Conservatives losing votes rather than as it were Labour making significant gains.
"It's not clear that Keir Starmer has particularly won votes in terms of saying, 'Here's an alternative program here that I could implement that would benefit you', although I think he probably has succeeded to some degree, in saying, 'Here's an alternative leader who can be a bit more focused and a bit more competent in managing Parliament.'
"Boris Johnson always presented himself as a bit of a loose cannon, a bit of a maverick, someone who would do the unexpected and not quite be your normal politician. That was part of the appeal voters had for him. So if they are now rejecting that kind of politician then that's going to be to the advantage of Keir Starmer who presents himself as a safe pair of hands."
He will face stiff competition from some of Mr Johnson's colleagues in the cabinet who are also reportedly posturing for the top job. "Rishi Sunak has been reasonably quiet over the last few days. He's not been negative, but he's not said anything super positive either and there's been a few times where he's just happened to be busy at various meetings, getting on with the job of being chancellor. That's him positioning himself.
"Liz Truss has been bit more supportive, but she's also been hedging her bets somewhat. So they will certainly be hoping that they can emerge out into this void, should the Boris Johnson be removed."
Prof Finlayson believes that the true test to the public's confidence in the Prime Minister and his Government will come at this year's local council elections. Voters in London, certain other parts of England, Scotland and Wales will go to polls on 5th May.
Should Mr Johnson still be in power, the results of these elections could indicate how people might vote in the general elections due to take place in 2023. "The council elections will give a clear indication of what direction people will be voting and how much people are willing to vote for other parties against the Tories.
"More importantly, it will show how local Tory members are feeling about all this because they will make a decision when they're campaigning as to whether or not to put Boris Johnson on their leaflets or will they in fact say nothing about Mr Johnson and talk more about the local candidates or other things the party and government has been doing."
An inquiry into the various reports of parties at Number 10 is ongoing with results potentially expected as soon as this week.