AI to help tackle backlogs in A&E at Norfolk and Norwich Hospital
It is being rolled out to 100 hospitals in England, including the N&N.
Last updated 1st Apr 2022
Artificial intelligence software which can predict A&E admissions three weeks in advance is to be introduced at the Norfolk and Norwich Hospital in a bid to cut backlogs.
The technology uses data on subjects like local Covid and flu rates and calls to the NHS 111 service to forecast how busy accident departments will become.
It is being rolled out to 100 hospitals in England, including the N&N.
NHS bosses hope the technology will help tackle record waiting lists by allowing trusts to prepare for quieter or busier days.
By getting predictions far in advance, managers can allocate resources accordingly, for instance by freeing up beds when demand is expected to be high, and prioritising elective care in quieter periods.
The AI system uses ‘machine learning’ and modelling techniques to predict daily activity up to three weeks in advance.
In a trial at nine English hospitals, it was found to make forecasts with “impressive” accuracy and received positive feedback.
The software looks at various factors to work out how many people will show up at A&E each day. It also takes into account public holidays, when emergencies are more likely to occur.
In the future is hoped the system will also be able to look at other data sources such as the weather, with factors like extreme heat linked to strokes.
It comes at a time when growing demand, limited capacity, staff shortages and Covid safety measures have all taken their toll on emergency departments.
Some 31,112 people made unplanned attendances to Norfolk’s three hospitals in November 2021 and waiting times at all three sites are considerably worse than the national average.
In December, just 67.9pc of patients at NNUH were seen within four hours, the NHS’ national target.
Nationally, the average was 74pc. The target is 95pc.
In January the N&N had to take the drastic step of squeezing extra beds onto wards due to the number of patients.
James Paget Hospital and the Queen Elizabeth Hospital have not been selected to use the system yet.
Professor Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: “Pressures remain high, but staff are determined to address the Covid-19 backlogs that inevitably built up throughout the pandemic".
"While that cannot happen overnight, harnessing new technologies like the A&E forecasting tool, to accurately predict activity levels and free up staff, space and resources will be key to helping deliver more vital tests, checks and procedures for patients.”