"It's not looking good for Boris" says Essex politics expert
The inquiry could be the end for him
With the country still waiting for the results of the inquiry into Downing Street's lockdown parties, a local politics expert has shared his opinion.
The report will determine whether or not the parties reported to have happened during lockdowns broke Covid rules, and is expected to tell of Boris Johnson's involvement in the events.
Professor John Bartle works in the Department of Government at the University of Essex. He says it's not looking good for the Prime Minister's future: "The opinion poll evidence suggests that his approval ratings are very, very low, almost as low as Theresa May's just before she was ousted from office.
"We've got the local elections coming up in May and if the Conservative Party are hammered in those elections, then the message they will take from that is that there's reason to be concerned and they may try and remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.
"His reputation as somebody who was a bit of a buffoon, who essentially had the nation's interests at heart has taken a serious hit, and once politicians acquire that reputation for a lack of trustworthiness, everything that they do for from that point on is looked at with a degree of suspicion.
"He's only been Prime Minister now for a little bit over two years. On average, Prime Ministers last about 5 1/2 years - I'd be very, very surprised if he actually meets the average."
He said there was one reason Johnson may remain leader: "There is no obvious alternative if you look on the Conservative benches.
"We have a Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who has limited experience and fading popularity, we have a Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss... performing almost a non-role because all the major foreign policy issues are resolved by the Prime Minister, and we have a Home Secretary (Priti Patel), who is not thought by many to be a serious contender.
"Boris Johnson hope will be the the absence of any obvious successor will keep him in office for a little while, and perhaps, with time, as COVID fades, or the economy recovers, things may improve.
"If he does that, he will have to really improve the way he manages central government - the reports of the chaos in Downing St and the Cabinet coming out of Whitehall for last two years have not been encouraging. There's been a lack of focus, lack of clarity, a lack of grip."
Professor Bartle also warned Labour supporters there was a long way to go, despite the party being 10 points ahead in opinion polls.
"Labour is doing well because the Conservative Party doing badly... But Labour's fortunes have been driven by Conservative misfortunes... Labour have been able to make a little bit of an advance, but they're still only 10 points ahead.
"Many commentators believe that had this happened under a different leadership, under a different set of circumstances, and with more credible opposition, that the major opposition would be well ahead of the government by now, given all the problems that this government has faced - Labour continues to have problems in establishing its credibility under Keir Starmer."