Asymptomatic Covid cases higher than Government estimates says Essex health leader
Essex's Director of Public Health is urging people to book lateral flow tests
The number of people with Covid-19 but showing no symptoms is “much much higher” than the government’s estimate, the director of public health for Essex has said.
The estimation from Dr Mike Gogarty that the number of asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 is higher than the assumed rate of one in three, raises serious questions over the level of inadvertent transmission by those who have no idea that they are carrying coronavirus.
It makes the rollout of the lateral flow test (LFT), which allows people who have no symptoms to find out if they are infected, but not know it yet even more acute.
13 fast Covid-19 testing centres are now fully operational across the county, offering individuals without Covid-19 symptoms easy access to check if they have the virus.
Essex County Council (ECC) has led on the roll-out of the centres, alongside district council partners, and rapid LFTs are now the default testing approach in Essex.
Close to 50,000 people have been tested to date and residents are being urged to book an LFT as soon as possible – if they have not already – to help break the chain of Covid-19 transmission.
LFTs give results in around 30 minutes and quickly help to identify hidden cases of Covid-19 in the community.
This means individuals who are not showing symptoms can take immediate action and avoid the risk of passing on the virus. This is particularly important in respect of individuals who are unable to work from home or who have to come into close contact with others as part of their job.
At a meeting of ECC’s health scrutiny committee on Wednesday (January 27), Dr Mike Gogarty, its director of public, said:
“While the Government is saying and continues to say that one in three cases are asymptomatic, we are finding the figures are much much higher than that.”
Of the total tests carried out, Dr Gogarty said the county saw around five per cent come back positive around Christmas which has now fallen to around three per cent.
He added:
“We are seeing a sustained decline.
“We suspected to see quite a slow decline following a rapid increase but actually the rate of decline has been very similar to the increase.
“We have almost got a classical infection outbreak curve."
What is Covid-19?
Covid-19 emerged as a virus in December 2019 as the first cases are reported in Wuhan, China. Scientifically known as SARS-CoV-2, the virus created a global pandemic as it began to spread around the world. Symptoms can range from very mild to severe, causing death in some cases. Some people are completely asymptomatic and do not realise they even have the virus.
Has there been a virus like this before?
The SARS pandemic in 2003 was similar to Covid-19 in that it was also caused by a coronavirus. SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. The global outbreak of SARS lasted from 2002-2003, infecting over 8,000 people and killing 774. Covid-19 and SARS are both respiratory illnesses, but SARS was much more deadly and less infectious.
What are the main symptoms?
The NHS say the main Covid-19 symptoms are a high temperature, a new and continuous cough and loss or change to taste of sense or smell. NHS advises people with Covid-19 to take plenty of rest, drink lots of fluids, and take paracetamol for a high temperature.
What was the Government reaction?
The UK Government announced the first of several lockdowns in March 2020. By the end of the month, more than 100 countries around the world introduce full or partial lockdowns, preventing people from going to work, restricting everyday tasks and affecting the livelihoods of billions of people globally.
Which countries have been worst hit?
During the first year of the pandemic, the US recorded the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world and the most deaths, reporting an unprecedented 100,000 new cases in one day on November 4th 2020. Thousands of new cases were recorded on the same date in India (46,000+), the United Kingdom (22,000+), Brazil (17,000+) and Mexico (5,000+), while Ireland records less than 1,000 (578). Hundreds of other countries also reported a high rate of infection.
How have vaccines fought against Covid-19?
Vaccines began being approved for use across the globe. By January 2021, the UK approved the use of three different vaccines. The Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and the Moderna vaccine are rolled out to the public, with older people and those with greater health concerns getting priority. In April 2022, just under 53 million people had received at least one dose of the vaccine.
What are new Covid variants?
Four new variants of Covid-19 were discovered around the world. Beta was found in South Africa, Gamma in Brazil and Delta in India, while the Alpha variant was first located in Kent, UK. New variants are not likely to make someone more seriously ill than Covid-19 would, but variants like Delta have a higher infection rate, meaning it can be more easily spread.
The Omicron variant was first detected late 2021 in South Africa. Since then, it has become one of the most dominant variants in the world, with its own sub strains - BA.4 and BA.5.