Indian variant could create "explosive" outbreaks in East Riding
The council's public health boss says new lockdowns should be a “last resort”.
East Riding Council’s public health boss has warned the new India coronavirus variant could create “explosive” outbreaks if it takes hold locally but new lockdowns should be a “last resort”.
East Riding Council’s Public Health Director Andy Kingdom said the India 2 variant appeared to be spreading more quickly than the previously dominant Kent strain.
But he added a new local lockdown in the East Riding could be the “straw that breaks the camel’s back” and risk eroding the public’s trust in containment efforts.
It comes as the East Riding’s seven day rolling infection rate remained unchanged from between Tuesday, April 27 and Monday, May 3 and the following week, staying at 26 per 100,000 people.
The number of new cases found was 88 in the week before Tuesday, May 4 and Monday, May 10, when it rose to 90.
Mr Kingdom said the vaccine rollout had now become a “sprint down the age range” to outpace infections from the new variant.
A total of 213,000 East Riding residents, 73 per cent of those eligible, have had their first vaccine dose while 43 per cent, 124,000, have had both.
The rollout has begun targeting 38 to 39 year olds who can now book vaccinations and is expected to move to 36 to 37 year olds in the coming days.
Mr Kingdom said small local outbreaks had kept the rolling rate above the 50 mark he is currently aiming for.
He added the East Riding had a rolling rate higher than the England average of 24 but lower than Yorkshire and Humber’s which is currently 42.
The director also welcomed no recorded deaths from the East Riding since late April and the roughly 10 coronavirus patients in Hull Royal Infirmary and Castle Hill Hospital.
But he warned Monday’s easing came just as the new India variant was beginning to take hold, though it has not done so yet in Yorkshire and the Humber.
“There are three India variants, it’s the second one which has spread to London and parts of the North West where it’s now dominant.
“With any variants it’s about seeing if they’re able to out-compete the ones that were previously dominant, the Kent strain has been dominant in the East Riding and nationally up to now.
“We think the India 2 variant has a competitive advantage over the Kent one, it doesn’t appear to make people more ill but it gets into them quicker.
“The good news is genetically India 2 looks similar to the original Wuhan strain so the vaccine should still work against it.
“But if it reaches the East Riding then the problem is that because our case numbers are smaller it’s starting from a much lower point and could push them up again quickly.”
Mr Kingdom said the new strain meant it was more important that people following the rules still in place while meeting indoors.
“Monday will be one of the biggest steps we’ve taken on the roadmap so far, opening places up will also give the India 2 strain more of an opportunity to spread if it gets here.
“And because of how quickly it can spread the issue could be that it causes explosive outbreaks in those who haven’t been vaccinated yet, so school children and among young people that’s where we might see it first.
“People will be increasing the number of contacts they have from around four or five a day at the moment to 10 or 20.
“The other issue is the behavioural cue the easing sends, people could hear that and think that it’s over now and then a step becomes a rush and they give up on following social distancing and the hands, face, space measures.
“Those restrictions are about 60 per cent of what’s keeping infections down, on Monday we’re taking that away and the pressure will fall on the vaccine rollout and social distancing and the like.
“But I would say a local lockdown would have to be an absolute last resort, we need to keep it there as a tool but we have to take people with us and I think it would send the wrong message after the sacrifices they’ve made already.
“I would support things like keeping the face mask rule in schools in place and using targeted contract tracing including going door to door and vaccinations so we can get on top of any outbreaks as quickly as possible.”
Mr Kingdom said residents should take Monday’s easing “slowly” and try to keep their contact with others as low as they can.
“Ahead of Monday I would say just because you can doesn’t mean you should, there’s still 77,000 people who haven’t been vaccinated yet so it’s like driving to the conditions given that and the potential arrival of the India strain.
“But also I would like to say well done to people, we’ve reached this point now where we’re still just about okay going into Monday and that’s thanks to them following all the measures so far.”