Rise in cancer cases unsurprising, says Cambridge doctor
A coalition of cancer charities predicts there'll be 6.3 million new cases by 2040
A Cambridge doctor has said he's not surprised that more than six million new cancer cases could be detected in England within the next 15 years.
The study from One Cancer Voice, a group of 60 cancer charities, claims one person will be diagnosed with the disease every two minutes in England.
This is up from every four minutes in the 1970s, new analysis suggests.
"The latest numbers are indeed concerning and and of course for alarm, but to those of us who are working in cancer research, they are not surprising," Dr Siddhartha Kar, associate professor of cancer epidemiology at the University of Cambridge, said.
"Part of the reason for this is the UK has a rapidly ageing population.
"We have almost a third more individuals above the age of 65 and cancer is a disease of older age groups in particular."
722,000 new cancer cases in East by 2040
The research by One Cancer Voice suggests there have been 5.5 million cancer cases in the last 15 years.
New figures suggest there will be a 14.2% increase in the next 15 years, with around 6.3 million cancer cases expected by 2040.
Regionally, the South East could see the biggest rise in diagnoses with more than one million cases between now and 2040, the study claims.
This is followed by the North West, with 865,000 cases, the East of England and the South West with 722,000, and London with 714,000.
The analysis also found that cases of common cancers are expected to reach record highs.
In 15 years, there could be more than one million cases of prostate cancer diagnosed, as well as 906,000 cases of breast cancer and 821,000 cases of lung cancer, according to the coalition.
At the moment, it is estimated there are around 55,100 cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the UK every year, with 56,800 cases of breast cancer and 49,200 cases of lung cancer.
"We are better than ever at diagnosing and detecting cancer, so there are more cases that we might have missed in the past that we're picking up," Dr Kar said.
"About six per cent of all cancers in the UK are down to being overweight and obesity, so there are policies and strategies that need to be implemented but at individual level, things can be done."
Plan to tackle cancer
In February, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) launched a call for evidence to help shape a national cancer plan.
The blueprint is expected to be published later this year, which Ms Mitchell said could be a "defining moment".
The coalition has called for the plan to meet six "tests" to make England a world-leader in cancer care:
- A pledge to meet all cancer waiting times by the end of Parliament in 2029
- A new earlier diagnosis target, with improved screening programmes
- The introduction of strong cancer prevention policies
- Addressing inequalities in patient care
- Improving access to clinical trials for cancer patients
- Better support for people to live well with and beyond cancer
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK and One Cancer Voice representative, said the "National Cancer Plan for England could be a defining moment.
"If the UK Government delivers an ambitious fully funded strategy, we could save more lives and transform cancer outcomes, propelling England from world lagging to among world leading when it comes to tackling this disease."
"Meeting these six tests will show how serious the UK Government is about improving cancer outcomes."
What has the Government said?
Between July 2024 and May this year, the DHSC said 95,000 more people have been diagnosed with cancer or ruled out within 28 days compared to the same period last year.
"This government is prioritising cancer care as we turn around more than a decade of neglect of our NHS," a DHSC spokesperson said.
"We're also making it easier for people to get tests, checks and scans with DIY screening kits for cervical cancer, new radiotherapy machines in every region, and by creating the first smoke-free generation."