Prepare for long lockdown, says Bristol public health boss
Christina Gray says restrictions could well be in place into March
One of Bristol's top health officials says the city is at a "critical point" in its fight against the virus and we must do all we can to bring infections down.
In an interview with us earlier this week Christina Gray discussed the current case numbers, the situation in our hospitals and how long the current lockdown is likely to last.
You can read her comments below.
No comfort that Bristol's rates are below the national average
As of Wednesday (06/01) Bristol's infection rate stood at 375 per 100,000 people, while the England average sits at 580, but Christina Gray says we should not take comfort from that.
"The whole country's rates are going up and we've got local authorities in the East and London where they’ve got rates of over 1,000 (per 100,000)," she said.
"So all our rates in every local authority across the United Kingdom are currently going in the wrong direction quite quickly. "
Mixing over Christmas and the new variant of the virus are both being blamed for the increasing rates.
"We’ve certainly got the new variant circulating," she said.
"I think in the South West the latest estimates were that about 40 percent of our cases were likely to be driven by the new variant.
"In addition we were already braced for a spike following mixing over the holiday period and in addition to that the winter is the worst time for the coronavirus...
And on top of that in terms of the pressure that’s on the NHS, January and Febuary are always challenging months for the NHS.
"So with this on top that’s what makes this a very concerning and critical point."
Hospitals in our area are struggling
According to Director Gray the situation in our hospitals is not as severe as in other places like London, but it is still not good.
"Across Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire as of yesterday there were almost 300 people being treated in hospital for covid," she said.
"Now on top of those patients of course the hospital has to reduce its capacity to be able to nurse anybody or treat anybody safely, because they have to create that additional space (for covid).
"So the hospitals are working on reduced capacity to treat covid patients and they are trying not to stop treating other conditions, because we have cancers, we have heart disease, we have road traffic accidents, we have people waiting for procedures.
"If the hospital has to pivot over and close down as we did indeed in wave one to create capacity, that causes other harms.
"So it is a perfect storm."
Act like you have the virus
We're being told we must act as if ourselves and everyone around us has the virus, even if we feel perfectly well.
"It's very very hard with family, friends, people you love, particularly for young people in friendship groups, to think, actually the three or four people sitting on this street corner or in a house or somewhere, who are perfectly well, could be transmitting the virus and not even know," she said.
"It’s very very hard. And that’s why now, particularly now, we have to go back to the basics and limit social contact."
Follow the rules or lockdown could be extended
It is "absolutely critical" that we follow the rules, to avoid the collapse of the NHS.
"Those people (NHS workers) are also exhausted," Director Gray said.
"They are parents, they have families, they have lives, they are catching covid.
"So it is absolutely important, absolutely critical that all of us reign it in right now and do what we need to do."
She adds though, that despite our best efforts the lockdown may well last into March.
"Those are the critical months for the health service and those are the winter months when the virus thrives," she said.
"Now the scientists and the epidemiologists will be tracking this very, very carefully and nobody is going to want to keep restrictions on for longer than is possible,
"But personally I think we are looking at an arch where we are going to have to be careful from between now and March time, before we can be confident that we have A got the virus under control and it's not spreading at the rate that its currently spreading at, we’ve protected the NHS and we’ve managed to get the vaccine out.
"I think psychologically it would be wise to prepare (for a long lockdown).
"This isn’t going to be a quick fix.
"We need to get through to February certainly and see what’s happened with the rates."