Possibility of 'further escalation' of Middle East conflict, says UN expert in Buckingham
Today marks a year since the October 7th attacks
Last updated 7th Oct 2024
Today marks a year since Hamas attacked southern Israel, on October 7th 2023, leading to escalation between the two countries.
The war was sparked by an attack by Islamist militant group Hamas on festival goers in Israel, with a number of hostages captured by the group.
1,200 people were killed in the attack, with 250 others taken captive, according to Israeli tallies.
This was soon followed by retaliation by the Israeli army, with intensified coups in Palestinian territories.
Gaza's health ministry says Israel's subsequent military assault has killed nearly 42-thousand Palestinians, displaced almost all of the 2-point-3 million population and caused a hunger crisis.
In recent weeks, the conflict intensified, with the involvement of para-military group Hezbollah in Lebanon, with ground attacks within the Lebanese border, and the recent involvement of Iran.
The war is reported to have accounted for thousands of civilian deaths on both sides since last October, with many more displaced.
Mark Seddon, professor of UN Studies at the University of Buckingham and former speechwriter for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, has expressed concern that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could expand beyond the scale of the Iraq War.
He warned that the situation is rapidly spiralling out of control, with major powers and regional actors involved in ways that could have global repercussions.
He said: "I think there is a potential for this becoming a much bigger war than the war in Iraq,” emphasising that the involvement of powerful countries such as Iran adds a level of complexity and danger that wasn’t present in the Iraq conflict.
He highlighted how quickly events have escalated, leaving little room for public reflection or diplomatic intervention.
Britain now at risk?
Pr Seddon spoke of the potential role of British bases in Cyprus, and said: "It becomes apparent that most likely Britain did help Israel from its bases in Cyprus.
"So that would actually potentially make the British bases in Cyprus a real target this time round." he said, drawing attention to the wider implications for European countries.
The conflict, which intensified after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, has since seen extensive military retaliation by Israel.
"This latest round of much more intensive fighting than many of us can remember," he added.
Netanyahu and U.S. involvement
Pr Seddon attributed part of the ongoing crisis to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-term political goals, while the U.S. seems to be sticking to its alliance with the nation.
He said: "Netanyahu sees this as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East."
"The Biden administration was not prepared to actually put the real pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu."
According to Pr Seddon, Netanyahu has continued to pursue his agenda of expanding the conflict, partly in anticipation of a potential second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been more supportive of Israel's regional objectives.
Expanding conflict and the humanitarian crisis
The war has now extended beyond Gaza and Israel to involve other regional actors, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian forces.
The humanitarian toll of the conflict has been devastating.
Pr Seddon said: "The sheer number of lives lost, of cities, towns lost completely bombarded, and the number of displaced people is astonishing."
He pointed out that over a million people have been displaced in Lebanon alone, with tens of thousands killed across Gaza, Lebanon, and northern Israel.
Meanwhile he argued that the international community is not taking bold enough action to prevent the conflict from escalating further.
He said: "International law is being flouted and human rights have been ignored.
"There’s been a real global failure of leadership to rein in the protagonists."
Potential impact on Europe and global politics
One of Pr Seddon’s most concerning predictions is that the conflict could spill into Europe, making the region more vulnerable to attacks.
He explained that the British bases in Cyprus 'could become a target'.
In the longer term, he warned that we could be subject to far more potential terrorist attacks.
Looking at the broader geopolitical implications, Pr Seddon warned that inaction could further erode the legitimacy of international law and bodies like the United Nations.
He said: "Without real global leadership, I think that this could get an awful lot worse.
"Here we are, a year later, and it’s continued into southern Lebanon and northern Israel.
"this war could be far more dangerous than the one fought against Iraq."
As the conflict continues to widen, the international community faces mounting pressure to act, but the question remains whether it can step in effectively to prevent further destabilisation across the region and beyond.