Energy price cap reduced - but bills could still go up

Ofgem has lowered the amount energy companies can charge

Author: Chris MaskeryPublished 27th Feb 2023

Ofgem has announced it will lower its energy price cap from April but experts are saying bills are still likely to rise.

For an average household, the price cap will drop from £4,279 per year to £3,280, reflecting the drop in wholesale energy prices.

The price cap is actually on units of energy though, so while these figures are for an average house, you may actually use far more or less than that and your bill will vary accordingly.

If the energy price cap has fallen why are bills going to go up?

There are two government schemes in place currently which give us some money back from our energy bills and as these end or get less generous it's likely to mean bigger bills.

The Government’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) becomes less generous from the beginning of April, meaning customers will pay about 20% more on their bills – approximately £500.

Also the £400 energy rebate scheme – paid in six instalments of £66 and £67 a month is also coming to an end.

What have Ofgem said?

Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley said: “Although wholesale prices have fallen, the price cap has not yet fallen below the planned level of the Energy Price Guarantee. This means that on current policy bills will rise again in April. I know that for many households this news will be deeply concerning.

“However, today’s announcement reflects the fundamental shift in the cost of wholesale energy for the first time since the gas crisis began, and while it won’t make an immediate difference to consumers, it’s a sign that some of the immense pressure we’ve seen in the energy markets over the last 18 months may be starting to ease.

“If the reduction in wholesale prices we’re currently seeing continues, the signs are positive that the price cap will fall again in the summer, potentially bringing bills significantly lower.

“However, prices are unlikely to fall back to the level we saw before the energy crisis. Even with the extensive package of government support that is currently in place, this is a very tough time for many households across Britain.

“Where people are struggling, we urge them to contact their supplier to make sure they are getting all the help and support they are entitled to. We also think that, with bills continuing to be so high, there is a case for examining with urgency the feasibility of a social tariff for customers in the most vulnerable situations.”

Cost of living crisis

Interest rates and inflation go up

Inflation rose by 8.8% in the 12 months to January 2023, down from 9.2% in December 2022. With interest rates also rising to 4%, those saving money will earn more interest on their finances, whilst those paying mortgages would pay more interest to the bank.

Energy bills

The price of energy went up incredibly as the cost of living crisis hit, with the gas price spike caused largely by the war in Ukraine. The price cap - which is set by an independent regulator to help offset costs onto customers - was set to rise to £3,549 for an average home in October but a price freeze from the government restricted the typical bill to £2,500. That's still an increase of 27% from the previous energy cap and as it's a cap on unit cost, the more energy you use the higher your bill will be.

Food prices

The cost of a weekly shop also has gone up as a result of the cost of living crisis. As a result of the war in Ukraine, a number of products including cooking oils and wheat have been disrupted. This means that several products are now considerably more expensive, driving bills up for customers.

Prices at the pumps

The average cost of petrol has also rose to unprecedented levels. Supply lines for petrol have been thrown into doubt as a result of the war in Ukraine, as Russia is a large export partner for gas, oil and fuel. In April 2022, the average price for a litre of petrol on the forecourt was 160.2p, whilst a litre of diesel would cost 170.5p. By late June 2022 the price had risen to an average of 190.9p for a litre of unleaded and 198.9p for a litre of diesel. In March 2023 the price wass on average of 147.03 in petrol and 167.04 in diesel.

Average cost of filling up a car with petrol hits £100

On 9th June 2022, the average cost of filling up a car with petrol hit £100 for the first time ever. Diesel had already hit that milestone. It comes as the cost of fuel hit a record high of one pound eighty a litre. The 2p rise was the biggest daily jump in 17 years. Prices have dropped by at least 20p per litre since the high point.

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