COVID rates in England at highest ever recorded level, says study
But a slight dip in infection rates "coincide with half term"
The overall rates of Covid-19 in England are higher than they have ever been, according to one study that has been collecting data since May 2020.
Findings from the REACT-1 study suggest that the increase is being driven by infection in children aged five to 17.
The study found that between 19 October and 29 October with one in 17 children infected with the virus.
However, the study did not run in December last year when the peak of the second wave occurred.
While 12 to 15-year-olds in England are eligible for Covid-19 vaccines, data suggests the uptake has been slow.
Prof Elliott said: "This does coincide with half-term. We do know that we saw a very, very similar pattern in round six at the same time last year, where over the half-term period the rates dropped.
"And then actually they rebounded and went up again. So I think watching what happens in the next week, 10 days, is going to be really critical."
It follows the news that the UK has approved the first anti-viral pill to treat COVID-19.
1.57% people testing positive
Prevalence refers to the proportion of the participants (67,208) who tested positive during the study period of October 19 to October 29.
The prevalence observed among the younger age group was 5.85%, while in the older bracket it was 5.75%. Across England it was 1.72%, compared with 0.83% in September 2021.
Regionally, the highest prevalence was in the South West at 2.18%, with researchers saying this "might be related to widespread reports of people who tested positive using lateral flow tests going on to test negative using RT-PCR tests".
In January this year, after the Delta variant took hold, the prevalence of the virus was estimated to be 1.57%.
Using this data, the React-1 study researchers estimated that the next highest prevalence was in "parent-aged" adults, those between 35 and 54.
More 5-17 year olds testing positive
Graham Cooke, professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London, said: "Back in January of this year, the highest prevalence age group was 18 to 24.
"And that's substantially lower now and apart from school-aged children, all other age groups have a lower prevalence.
"So it's been driven by this significant increase in prevalence in the five to 17-year-olds, which has gone up substantially since January."
The study found there was a higher rate of the virus among those who had been in contact with a confirmed Covid case, those who lived in larger households, and those who live in households with one or more children.
Helen Ward, professor of public health at Imperial College London, said: "We know that vaccination uptake in children, the 12-plus-year-olds, is not very high and that's where we've got most infection.
"Children are one group where it is continuing to circulate and therefore with (the) return to school following half-term you would expect there to be more transmission going on there.
"And the parents of those children are the other age group that we saw higher increases in, and are also the age group that are not yet eligible for booster doses.
"So that is why it's really important to continue monitoring what's happening in both the whole population but particularly those age groups that may become vulnerable again."
"The pandemic is far from over"
Commenting on the study, Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said: "Although the number of hospitalisations and deaths remain lower than in previous peaks, these findings are a powerful reminder that the pandemic is far from over and remains a serious threat to health and wellbeing.
"This new data strongly reinforces the need for all eligible age groups to get vaccinated and to take mitigating measures such as wearing a face covering in crowded places and ensuring good ventilation indoors.
"This is particularly urgent for older people whose immunity may be waning given that several months have passed since they received their jabs. I strongly encourage everyone who is eligible for a third dose or a booster shot to come forward without delay."
December 2019
The first case of Covid-19 was discovered in Wuhan, China and reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) in December 2019.
January 2020
Chinese state media reported the first known death from Covid-19 on 11 January 2020. The city of Wuhan was closed off by Chinese authorities on 23 January 2020, cancelling all transport entering and leaving the city. In January, the WHO also declared Covid-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
February 2020
February was when the virus started to receive real global recognition. It was officially named Covid-19 by WHO, and countries around the world started to report cases and deaths. Italy reported Europe's first major outbreak and had to use tents to treat surging numbers of patients as hospitals ran out of room.
March 2020
UK Governments introduced a national lockdown from 23 March 2020, instructing people to "Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives", after the UK reported its first official death from Covid-19 on 2 March 2020. Cities around the country appeared deserted. In late March the United States became the worst hit country with the most reported cases at that point.
April 2020
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was taken into intensive care with Covid-19 on 6 April 2020. Worldwide, cases topped one million and deaths passed 200,000. April also saw the first peak of the virus in the UK.
June 2020
England and Scotland made face coverings mandatory on public transport in June, while Northern Ireland and Wales followed suit in July. Face coverings then became mandatory in shops in each nation, with Scotland and England introducing the rule in July, Northern Ireland in August and Wales in September.
September 2020
In September, the official global death toll reached 1 million. However, the official figures are thought to greatly understate the number of people who have actually died from Covid-19. In the US alone, Covid-19 deaths surpassed 200,000.
November 2020
In November, England entered a second lockdown in an attempt to try and curb the spread of the virus.
December 2020
The UK became the first country in the world to approve a vaccine against Covid-19 for use in December. Vaccinations began on 8 December 2020, when 90-year-old Margaret Keenan became the first person outside of a clinical trial to receive the jab. Later on in the month, the UK approved a second vaccine, developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca. However, it wasn't all good news, as a new variant of Covid-19 was also discovered in December, which was much more transmissible than the original strain.
January 2021
In January 2021, the mass vaccine roll out began across the UK. However, all four nations all went back into full lockdown as the UK entered a second wave of the virus, with the peak surpassing that of the first wave in April. The UK also reached the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths.
February 2021
At the height of the third lockdown, the first cases of the South African variant came to dominate diagnosed Covid cases in the UK. February also saw the UK meet its target of administering 10 million first doses of the coronavirus vaccine.
Boris Johnson also unveiled the UK's strategy to return to normal life after the pandemic. The country would only come out of lockdown once the vaccines showed a strong effect of fighting the virus. To stop the spread, the Prime Minister also announced new regulations to international travel. Travellers from countries on the government's "red list" would be made to quarantine in hotels at their own expense. It was also revealed that any resumption of non-essential international travel would not happen until May 17th.
March 2021
March saw the one-year anniversary since the first lockdown. However, the country began to cautiously reopen, with the "stay at home" order being formally lifted. The government did, instead, recommend that people "stay local" from March 29th.
People could begin to socialise again with the implementing of the rule of six in outdoor spaces such as parks and gardens. As well as this, gyms and leisure centres were able to open their doors, while schools and colleges could welcome pupils back for the first time in months.
April 2021
Following an increase in vaccinations and the reduction of Covid cases, the Prime Minister confirmed the easing of restrictions on April 12th. The government's move to Step 2 provided the biggest reopening of the economy since the pandemic began, with outdoor venues including pubs and restaurants being given the go ahead. Non-essential retail shops such as hairdressers and clothes shops could also begin to open their doors again. The rule of six in outdoor spaces continued to be enforced.
India was also added to the UK's "red list" after a significant rise in cases following the discovery of the Delta variant.
May 2021
As the economy began to bounce back, further restrictions were eased on May 17th. The number of people allowed to gather rose to 30 people, with the rule of six allowed for indoor spaces for social gatherings. Hospitality venues could also open indoors, following government guidelines.
Mass gatherings were also trialled in May, with up 10,000 people allowed to attend large-scale events like football matches. Non-essential international travel was cautiously permitted, allowing holidaymakers to visit countries on the "green" and "amber" lists.
June 2021
In June, the Delta variant – first discovered in India – became the dominant strain of coronavirus and drove a third wave in infections across the UK.
The big increase in diagnoses delayed the government's final major easing of restrictions, including the scrapping of the rule of six in indoor spaces. All legal restrictions would thus be lifted one month later in July.
July 2021
At the beginning of the month, the government confirmed that cases had sufficiently stabilised to confirm the easing of all remaining restrictions – including the wearing of face masks and social distancing. Boris Johnson announced that following restrictions would become a "personal choice".
July 19th was dubbed "Freedom Day", as the country fully opened up as it had been before the pandemic hit. Fully vaccinated people could now visit nightclubs and large-scale music events such as festivals. Those returning from "amber" list countries after getting two jabs would also no longer need to quarantine.
August 2021
As restrictions across England came to an end, Scotland and Wales chose to delay the full easing of limits until early August. But as children went back to education in Scotland, over 60 schools had confirmed Covid outbreaks, threatening the likelihood of a long-term end to restrictions.
Across the UK, vaccination numbers continued to rise, with 75% of adults in England receiving at least one dose of an approved vaccine. The immunisation effort was also extended to 16 and 17-year-olds to drive full immunity.
September 2021
While the number of confirmed Covid cases worldwide surpassed 7 million, the UK was emerging from the pandemic. The furlough scheme, brought in at the beginning of the pandemic, was formally ended – funding £70 billion of people's wages.
The government also announced its winter plan to prepare for a possible spike in infections. This included booster jabs with priority for the elderly and vulnerable risk groups. 12-15-year-olds also became eligible to receive a first dose.
October 2021
Covid passports came to divide the UK, as Scotland and Wales brought in respective schemes to control the spread of the Delta variant. Chancellor Rishi Sunak also announced that the NHS would receive an extra £5.9 billion in funding in the Budget.
International travel also returned to normal, with the scrapping of the travel list system. Washington D.C. also revealed that fully vaccinated British travellers could travel to the United States – for the first time in 20 months.
November 2021
As the country continued to come out from the pandemic, booster jabs were made available to those aged 40 and over. But towards the end of November, concerns were raised about a new mutation of the virus that had originated from southern Africa. Cases began to rise across the world as the newly named Omicron variant spread rapidly across the world. Flights were stopped to southern African nations including South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana. Face coverings were also made mandatory once again in shops and on public transport.
December 2021
With the rising threat of Omicron, concern over whether restrictions should be reimposed. The Omicron variant spread across the country, and became the dominant strain of coronavirus being discovered by the middle of December. To combat the mutation, Prime Minister Boris Johnson brought in the government's 'Plan B', which once again mandated face coverings, as well as the introduction of Covid passes. However, support for the government's plans was at an all time low, with 100 Tory MPs going against the Prime Minister.
January 2022
On the 27th January, Boris Johnson gave the go-ahead to lift the restrictions, from face coverings to being no longer mandatory to NHS Covid-19 Pass becoming voluntary. At the same time, Scotland also eased Omicron restrictions on indoor settings, with social distancing being scrapped in hospitality.
Boris Johnson was in the limelight after alleged gatherings held during the first lockdown. With Number 10 facing a number of questions from the opposition over 'Partygate.
February 2022
The Queen tested positive for Covid-19 in February and experienced mild symptoms, after it was confirmed she had been in direct contact with her eldest son and heir, the Prince of Wales.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has set out his plans for "living with Covid", indicating that self-isolation would be lifted a month earlier.
March & April 2022
In March, all remaining travel restrictions were lifted for entering the UK. From the 18th of March, Passenger Locator Forms and pre-travel tests to the UK were scrapped, leading to a massive welcoming from the air travel industry. Face coverings would also be gradually phased out on airlines such as British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. In April is was announced that children between 5 and 11 would be offered a covid-19 vaccine.
May 2022
The Met police investigated reports of gatherings at Downign Street and fined both the Prime Minister and Chancellor Rishi Sunak for attending such events. Boris Johnson apologised in parliament but refused to say much more until the Sue Gray report came out. When that report was finally published it said senior leadership must 'bear responsibility'
June 2022
In the week ending 25 June an estimated 1,829,100 people tested positive for covid in England—around one in 30 people—according to the ONS coronavirus infection survey. A week earlier that rate was one in 40. Experts believe these increased rates were likely driven by the growth of the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants.