Analysis Corner: Hogmanay Old Firm Review

Analytical review: Rangers 1-2 Celtic

By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)

Going into Saturday’s match, there’s no doubt that Rangers fancied their chances. Despite dropping points at St Johnstone midweek, Mark Warburton’s side went into Saturday’s derby knowing two key things. First of all, the match was at Ibrox, where Rangers had been unbeaten for over fifteen months. Secondly, that their adversaries would be playing their ninth competitive game of a relentless December.

However, despite snatching an early lead, Rangers would leave empty handed in this fixture for the third time this season, as Brendan Rodgers passed his Ibrox test with flying colours.

Shots

Shooting is important in football, and some shots are worth more than others. Celtic may have had more than double the amount of shots as Rangers (23 to 10) but the quality of their shooting was far more impressive.

Firstly, let’s take a look at Rangers’ shot map (where they took their shots from):

Regular readers will know my thoughts on shooting from outside the box: it’s a bad idea. Just 3% of all shots taken from outside the area find the back of the net, and the fact that Rangers took six of their ten shots from range is a good illustration of how they struggled to penetrate the Celtic area.

Now take a look at Celtic:

Rangers took four shots inside the box; Celtic had nineteen. It is a simple fact that the closer to the goal you take your shots, the more likely you are to score goals. It is worth noting that this quantity of shooting from inside the box in unprecedented at Ibrox this season, with the home side only giving up an average of four such opportunities per game.

Possession

This game is a perfect example as to why you shouldn’t trust basic possession stats. At the end of the game, possession was split 50:50 between the two sides. However, as with shooting, it is not so much the quantity of possession that counts rather than the quality.

Now, teams want possession, but they want it more specifically as far away from their own goal as possible. This makes sense for two reasons: first because it logically means that they are closer to the opposition goal, and secondly because it means that the opposition has further to travel if they win the ball and counter attack. For this reason, looking at how many times a team takes the ball into their opponents final third is usually a better guide as to how a game went than merely possession. Here’s how it looked on Saturday:

Celtic entered the Rangers final third nearly twice as much as they allowed Rangers in theirs. The more time you spend in the opposition’s final third, the more mentally draining it is for opposition defenders, and the better chance you have of taking quality shots.

Individual performances

Moussa Dembele thoroughly justified his selection ahead of Leigh Griffiths with a powerful display at Ibrox. In addition to scoring a lovely half volley to bring his side level, Dembele’s hold up play was magnificent. Indeed, most of the Rangers defence had no idea what to do with the Frenchman.

Out of twenty nine duels with James Tavernier, Rob Kiernan and Danny Wilson, the Ibrox trio won just eight. This provided a crucial out ball for Celtic, allowing Dembele to lay the ball off to the likes of Scott Sinclair, Stuart Armstrong and James Forrest. One Rangers defender who dealt well with Moussa Dembele was Clint Hill. The veteran Englishman was involved in seventeen duels with the goalscorer, and only lost four of them.

With Dembele proving such a reliable focal point for the attack, Scott Sinclair was at his rampant best coming in from wide. The Englishman managed twice as many shots in the penalty area as the home team combined (8 vs. 4). However, scoring goals is far from the only feature of Sinclair’s game. His tenacity to win the ball back was incredible, winning back possession for his team in the Rangers half five times in the game.

Finally, Barrie McKay deserves an honourable mention. The 21 year old was full of running, dribbling past Celtic players on nine occasions, and winning the ball back for his side eight times. Brendan Rodgers was certainly not wrong to single him out for praise after the match. Summary

Yet again, the team who has the better quantity and quality of shots wins the game. The Celtic midfield dominated Rangers, allowing them possession in the dangerous final third area. They were able to convert this possession into nineteen shots in the penalty area, while only allowing Rangers four. While Rangers may rue Miller hitting the post, or Harry Forrester not slipping in Joe Dodoo for a one on one near the end, there can be no argument that the better team won on the day.

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