Health officials warn rise in waiting times set to continue
Sources have revealed hospital waiting times here will continue to grow, even if devolved government is reinstated.
The warning comes as the Department of Health revealed the number of patients waiting more than 12 hours in emergency departments here has almost trebled.
Figures show between December 2016 and December 2017, the number of admissions waiting longer than half a day after being triaged, went from 888 to 2372.
Ministerial targets for emergency care waiting times in 2017/2018 state 'no patient attending any Emergency Care Department should wait longer than 12 hours.'
And only almost two-thirds of patients were seen within four hours, despite the aim being 95%.
WHY ARE WAITING TIMES HIGHER THAN BEFORE?
Last week MLAs were briefed on the winter pressures within emergency departments by senior health officials, after it emerged there was a 5% rise in overall attendances at A & E departments between Christmas Eve and January, 15.
The Department took a decision to reduce the level of elective activity across all hospitals until the end of January, with each Trust reviewing the position on a specialty basis.
On January, 18, the Department's Permanent Secretary Richard Pengelly paid tribute to nursing staff and said measures were being taken to mitigate the pressures:
"We all owe a great debt of gratitude to staff for their work under intense pressure.
"Every practical and feasible step is being taken to support them.
"However, looking to the future it is clear that much more radical action is needed."
WOULD MORE FUNDING SOLVE THE PROBLEM?
Health chiefs have warned waiting times will escalate, even if a Health Minister is restored and a budget set.
Sources said it would not be possible to reduce waiting times between now and the 31st March 2018 even if extra funding was provided.
More seriously ill patients and an ageing population are set to compound the problem, all against a backdrop of political instability, budget pressures and uncertainty.
The Bengoa report published in October last year, predicted the health service here would need a 6% budget increase annually just to maintain existing services.
"The Northern Ireland Executive invests annually almost £4.6 billion or 46% of its entire budget in providing health and social care services for the people of Northern Ireland.
"If costs rise as predicted, with a 6% budget increase required annually simply to stand still, then we can expect the budget requirement to double to more than £9 billion by 2026/27 to maintain the current system, which is struggling to meet the demands placed upon it.
"This is clearly not sustainable given the many other public services needed by the Northern Ireland population, many of which also have a significant impact on health and wellbeing by providing employment, education, good housing and a safe society," said Professor Rafael Bengoa in 2016.
With a projected shortfall of up to 170 million pounds for 2018/19, the crisis is only set to deepen.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Michelle O'Neill launched a 10 year transformation plan in 2016, after warnings the out-of-date healthcare system urgently needed reform.
But with the collapse of Stormont in January last year, changes haven't been implemented as they need ministerial decision.
Professor Bengoa warned it would be a slow road to change:
"Northern Ireland is not alone in facing these challenges.
"Health and care systems across the developed world are currently struggling with the question of how to adapt their services to deal with continuously rising and changing patterns of demand.
"The stark options facing the HSC system are either to resist change and see services deteriorate to the point of collapse over time, or to embrace transformation and work to create a modern, sustainable service that is properly equipped to help people stay as healthy as possible and to provide them with the right type of care when they need it."
Senior health officials warned there's no quick fix & even with an executive in place and a solid budget, services will continue to be stretched.