Sky carries out major NI poll ahead of 20th anniversary of Good Friday Agreement
Northern Irish people remain more likely to make close friends with people of the same religion, with young people seeing just as much of a divide as older people, a Sky Data poll for Sky News reveals.
Some 51% say most or all of their close friends are the same religion as them, rising to 62% for DUP voters and 65% for Sinn Fein voters. Thirty percent of Northern Irish people say half of their close friends are of the same religion as them, while 13% say less than half are, with six percent saying they don’t know.
Among 18-34 year-olds, 58% say most of their friends are of the same religion – as high as any other age group. One in four (26%) say half and nine percent say less than half or none, with three percent answering “don’t know”.
And the people of Northern Ireland are split on whether religious divisions have become less deep twenty years on from the Good Friday Agreement. Half of Northern Irish people – 50% - think divisions between Catholics and Protestants are less deep now than they were at the time of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, while 47% think they are the same (23%) or are deeper (24%); three percent answered ‘don’t know’.
Some 51% think Brexit has made divisions deeper, with 39% saying it has made no difference, four percent saying it has made divisions less deep, and five percent answering ‘don’t know’.
If they had to choose, two thirds of the Northern Irish public (65%) would prefer to stay in a customs union with the EU over having border controls either with the Republic of Ireland or Great Britain. One in three (28%) would prefer border controls on the island of Ireland, while seven percent would back border controls between Northern Ireland and Britain.
Almost two thirds of Northern Irish people (63%) say they would be upset if there were border controls with the Republic of Ireland after Brexit, including 49% who would be “very upset”. One in three (33%) would not be upset, with three percent saying “don’t know”. Nine in ten Catholics (91%) would be upset, including 81% who would be “very upset” – eight percent would not be upset. Four in ten Protestants (38%) would be upset, while 56% say they would not be upset.
Similarly, 67% of the Northern Irish public would be upset if there were border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain – including 52% who would be “very upset”. Twenty-nine percent would not be upset, and four percent said they don’t know. Some 84% of Protestants would be upset, with 69% “very upset”. Among Catholics, 45% would be upset, 51% not upset.
People are worried about the future of the system of government set up by the Good Friday Agreement – whereby the two largest parties must agree a power-sharing deal - with 47% saying it will work badly in the future, against 28% who expect it to work well. Seventeen percent say it will neither work well nor badly, and seven percent say they don’t know.
No power-sharing deal has been agreed since January 2017 – and only 17% expect a deal to be struck within a year, while 23% don’t ever expect another deal. Thirty-one percent think it will be more than one year but less than five years, three percent think it will be longer than five years but will happen at some point, and 26% say they don’t know.
People do feel safer now than twenty years’ ago, however – 61% feel safer now than at the time of the Good Friday Agreement, twenty-six percent say there’s been no change, and nine percent feel less safe.
But there has certainly been a change over the last twenty years on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage – the majority of Northern Irish now support legalising both.
Three in four – 76% - now think gay marriage should be legal in Northern Ireland, with 18% saying it should not and six percent unsure.
And 54% think women up to twelve weeks pregnant in Northern Ireland should have unrestricted access to abortion – 30% think they should not, with 15% unsure.
Head of Sky Data, Harry Carr, said:
“Twenty years on from the Good Friday Agreement, it is remarkable that the Northern Irish public remain split as to whether there has been any improvement in relations between the Protestant and Roman Catholic communities. The divisive nature of Brexit has not helped matters – and if a post-Brexit deal that avoids border controls either on the island of Ireland or in the Irish sea cannot be found, Theresa May will clearly have a problem on her hands.
Majority support for gay marriage and abortion in Northern Ireland shows there has been a marked decline in social conservatism, but it seems religious divisions in Northern Ireland remain prevalent.”