May facing massive commons defeat in Brexit vote
MPs will finally get the chance to have their say on the Prime Minister's EU withdrawal deal
Last updated 15th Jan 2019
Theresa May is braced for a potentially crushing Commons defeat for her Brexit deal after an eleventh hour appeal for support apparently failed to win round critics.
On a historic day at Westminster MPs will finally deliver their verdict on the Withdrawal Agreement hammered out with Brussels on Tuesday evening.
With more than 100 Tory MPs having declared their opposition to the plan, there was speculation the Government could go down to one of the heaviest defeats of modern times.
The Prime Minister has insisted she is focused on winning the vote - telling Conservative rebels on Monday evening they risked handing the keys of No 10 to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
However The Daily Telegraph quoted one Cabinet source as saying it would be "hard for her to carry on'' if she lost by more than 100 votes.
The Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom insisted Mrs May was determined to continue fighting for her agreement in the best interests of the country.
"Anything that looks like that level of disruption would incredibly bad - both for the country and for Brexit,'' she told BBC2's Newsnight.
"So I think the Prime Minister will remain determined to deliver on this deal. Her purpose is to leave the European Union in line with what people voted for. She could not be clearer about that.''
The deal suffered its first official parliamentary defeat in the House of Lords on Monday night as peers voted by 321 votes to 152 - a majority of 169 - to reject it.
Mr Corbyn indicated he was finally ready to table a vote of no-confidence in the Government if it loses in the Commons.
"Don't be concerned, it's coming soon,'' he told a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
It would appear unlikely Labour can muster enough votes to force a general election, with both Tory rebels and the DUP indicating they would continue to back the Government in a confidence vote.
However Downing Street has given little indication as to how the Prime Minister intends to proceed if she is defeated.
Under the terms of an amendment passed last week, she must table a motion on her Plan B by Monday - although in practice she is unlikely to want to wait that long.
Some reports have suggested she could fly to Brussels - possibly as early as Wednesday - in an attempt wring further concessions on the crucial issue of the Northern Ireland "backstop''.
But that could prove problematic if she has suffered a massive defeat, with EU leaders reluctant to give ground if they believe it is simply impossible for her to get the deal through the Commons.
Alternatively, she could to bring back the deal to the House for a second - or possibly even a third - time in an attempt to wear down the opposition.
Some MPs claimed to have detected some movement towards her position after she addressed a private meeting of Conservatives MPs at Westminster on Monday evening.
So far, however, the numbers contemplating backing the deal would appear to fall far short of what is needed to affect the final outcome.
Mrs May will make her final appeal when she winds up five days of debate in the Commons before MPs head to the division lobbies.
Voting is due to begin at 7pm and could continue for around two hours, depending on how many amendments Speaker John Bercow calls before the final "meaningful vote'' on the deal.
Speaking in the Commons on Monday, Mrs May acknowledged the deal was "not perfect'' but urged MPs to give it a "second look''.
With some pro-Remain MPs backing moves to take control of the parliamentary timetable if she is defeated, she warned any attempt by the House to thwart Brexit would be a "subversion of our democracy''.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said the "crushing'' verdict of the Lords on the withdrawal agreement will be repeated when MPs vote on the deal.
"Theresa May can only be facing the same crushing defeat in the Commons tonight. She has no Plan B. We do. Time for a #PeoplesVote,'' he tweeted.
Labour MP Hilary Benn has pulled his amendment to the Government's Withdrawal Agreement motion today which would have rejected both the PM's deal and leaving the EU with no deal.
Mr Benn, who is chairman of the Commons Exiting the European Union Committee, had Tory support for his proposal but tweeted that he had decided to act because "its vital that we now get the clearest expression of view from the House on the Government's deal''.
He said he would vote against the motion and intends to pursue a 'no to no deal' vote at the earliest opportunity.
Mr Benn said that since he had originally tabled his amendment in December, MPs had voted for a no deal amendment to the Finance Bill "which is a clear and very welcome indication of MPs' opposition to no deal''.
He said Dominic Grieve's amendment and the Speaker's ruling that a business motion can be amended "are also very important and there is now a proposal for a Bill that would allow the Commons in effect to rule out a no deal Brexit by seeking an extension to Article 50 if necessary''.
"All these developments mean that the House will soon have the opportunity to make it clear that it rejects no deal and so offer reassurance to the many businesses and their workers who are very anxious about the disaster that a no deal Brexit would represent.
"If the Prime Minister loses tonight the Government must reach out across the House to try and find a way forward. If this doesn't happen, then Parliament will have to take the lead.''
Dominic Raab said that Brexiteers like him could back a deal if aspects such as the backstop were dealt with.
The former Brexit secretary, who quit the post in November, said the EU had played "a smart game of hard ball'' and said it was time for the UK to do the same.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today: "I made clear when I resigned that there were three aspects that needed to be addressed.
"The backstop is clearly one of them and I want to see very clearly the Withdrawal Agreement linked to a best-in-class free trade agreement.
"If we could do those two things, someone like me would say that actually we could vote for it."