Analysis Corner: Rangers v Celtic Preview
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
On Saturday lunchtime, Rangers and Celtic will meet for the first time this season at Ibrox Stadium. The home side haven’t won this fixture in their last six attempts and will be desperate to bloody the champions’ nose. Meanwhile, a victory for the away side will see them open up an eight point lead over their city rivals with just seven games played.
A new season has brought new players and refreshed tactics on both sides of the city. Here’s how both sides will look to get at each other:
Celtic’s strategy
While neither Fabio Cardoso nor Bruno Alves have made any glaring errors so far, it’s perhaps fair to say that the duo have looked vulnerable in one on one situations. Simon Murray’s goal for Hibs at Ibrox is a great example of this, in which the Dundonian waltzed past the Rangers defence.
In Declan John and James Tavernier, Rangers fullbacks have a tendency to bomb forward. Great when it works, but it does leave a gap behind them. If they leave that space without cover, you can be sure Celtic will get the ball there quickly and accurately.
This will pull out one of Cardoso or Alves, and isolate whoever’s left in the middle.
Celtic score so many goals this way: lightning fast counters where the ball is pinged wide, and crossed into the box low and at pace before being finished by any number of onrushing attackers.
On the other hand, Celtic may well fancy their chances at playing their way through their rivals. In the centre, Ntcham and Brown have dictated the tempo so well this year. They can slow the play down and keep the opposition chasing shadows. On the other hand, they can pick it up in a second. Pass, move, pass, move, goal.
Ryan Jack and Graham Dorrans have made a steady start to their Ibrox careers. Needless to say, dealing with Celtic’s midfield duo will be their toughest test to date.
Rangers’ strategy
You could make a strong argument that Alfredo Morelos has been the player of the season so far. Forget about his goalscoring for a second: he adds so much more to Rangers’ play. Perhaps unappreciated is the slog he puts in defensively. He presses opposition defenders relentlessly, putting them under pressure in a way Joe Garner and Martyn Waghorn just couldn’t. Look at his second goal against Ross County as evidence of this.
Now, Cetic’s defence has been miserly this season. It’s only let in three goals in eight domestic games to date. However, the fact remains that their defence will either feature a player out of position (Lustig) or a player short on match fitness (Boyata/Simunovic). If they hesitate on the ball, misplace a pass or switch off for a second, they will soon have a Colombian for company.
Be that as it may, Rangers still need to find a way to get the ball to him in dangerous areas. Key to this will be the players supporting him.
Daniel Candeias is a shoe in on the right. The Portuguese has a turn of pace and is an accomplished crosses. His ability to shuffle the ball from foot to foot at pace has given him a lot of joy this season.
Unfortunately for Rangers, this is where it gets tricky.
On the left, Josh Windass will likely get the nod. He will likely be directly against Anthony Ralston, the more defensive of Celtic’s fullbacks. If you’re Caixinha, do you tell Windass to go after Ralston? Or do you tell him to stay more central, and let Declan John overlap?
Centrally, there is also a problem.
Kenny Miller has struggled with positional discipline this season, often finding himself far too deep to be able to relieve pressure as an out ball. Furthermore, his difficulty in holding position means that he has struggled to meaningfully contribute in the final third.
As it stands, Miller is contributing a goal or setting one up every 135 minutes. That means that he’s playing roughly two hours before he does something meaningful in front of goal. While Mexican imports Eduardo Herrera and Carlos Peña have been criticised in some quarters, the fact remains that they are doing a lot more in front of goal in fewer minutes.
Caixinha probably won’t start two out and out strikers, so Peña will likely get the nod here. The Mexican completed a reasonable 70 minutes at Firhill in midweek. While the execution of some of his passes was lacking, the ideas were there. He also bridged the gap between midfield and attack far more effectively than Miller.
How does this all end?
One of Celtic’s great advantages is that can score in so many different ways. Griffiths and Dembele are so efficient in the penalty box, Roberts and Sinclair can dance into the box from wide areas, while if that doesn’t work, both Rogic and Armstrong will get you from range.
It seems therefore seems unthinkable that Celtic will fail to score here.
While Rangers have improved from last year, this is still a work in progress. Morelos is clearly their best chance at scoring. With enough luck, it might even be enough to get something for the game.
However, a Celtic win still seems most likely. Roll on Saturday...
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