Analysis Corner: Predicting the final Premiership table
Last updated 24th Apr 2018
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
This week I take a look at who is favourite in the race for second and who is facing the drop into the Championship...
Hibs looking good for second
Take a look at the following table:
That's how many goals each team in the league has scored against Celtic, conceded against Celtic and their overall balance for the season against the champions.
Top of the pile are Neil Lennon’s Hibernian side. Indeed, they are the only team to have a positive goal difference in matches against Celtic this season.
Saturday’s win to delay the Celtic title party was undoubtedly the pick of the bunch for the Easter Road side.
Indeed, looking at the rest of their fixtures, Hibs have little to fear. From their last matches against Aberdeen, Rangers, Kilmarnock and Hearts, Lennon’s side have won three, drawn one, scored eight and conceded three.
With their rivals for second, Aberdeen and Rangers, managing just one draw in six outings against Celtic, Hibs can be fairly confident of making up the three point gap that separates them from their opponents.
Partick Thistle staring relegation in the face
In seven games and two months, the only Premiership side Partick Thistle have managed to score against is Hamilton Accies.
Saturday’s win may have nudged them ahead of Ross County at the bottom of the table, but it was their first win at Firhill in nearly four months.
By contrast, Stuart Kettlewell is making Ross County a tough side to beat. Although they could only draw at the weekend against Motherwell, their only defeat in the past five games was at the hands of Celtic. County may lie a point behind Alan Archibald’s Partick Thistle, but they’re certainly in the better form. The two sides meet at Firhill one week on Friday in what looks like a relegation decider.
First, Thistle must travel to Perth to play St Johnstone, while County go to Hamilton. While Thistle may have won at McDiarmid Park earlier this season, it certainly appears the tougher fixture, given Hamilton are currently on a six game winless run. A failure to stop the rot could mean a second successive season in the relegation playoffs (or worse).
Top scorer shootout
With two goals in the first twelve matches of the season, Kris Boyd probably did not think he’d have much of a chance of ending up the league’s top scorer.
Yet, with four to play, the veteran sits two goals clear of Alfredo Morelos with sixteen goals to his name.
One of the side effects of the Steve Clarke revolution at Kilmarnock was a significant increase in productivity from the 34 year old.
Since Clarke’s arrival, he’s scored more goals than he had in his previous two seasons combined.
Too often in past years at Rugby Park, the gap between midfield and attack has been too large. Boyd is one of the best one/two touch finishers Scotland has ever produced, but if you isolate him up front, you’re wasting him. He can hold the ball up or he can finish. He’s not going to dribble, close down or feint.
As much as Clarke receives the plaudits, credit should go to Alan Power, Youssouf Mulumbu and Gary Dicker for manning the midfield so effectively that the likes of Jordan Jones, Aaron Tshibola and Eamonn Brophy can push up the field and link up with their captain.
Final table prediction
With all that in mind, here’s how I see the final table panning out. The real uncertainty at the top lies in the race for second, with Hibs, Aberdeen and Rangers still to face each other. Given recent history, you’d have to fancy the Edinburgh side to come out top in those games.
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