Analysis Corner: How Partick Thistle are on track for a top 6 finish
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)
null
While the title race has effectively been over for some time, there are plenty of interesting subplots gathering in pace as we approach the final few months of the season. One of them is taking place in the West End of Glasgow, as Alan Archibald looks to take Partick Thistle to their first top six finish in thirty-five years. The Jags currently sit seventh, just one point behind Dundee, who they meet at Dens Park on Wednesday night. Here are a few of the factors that have worked in Partick Thistle’s favour this season:
Using their head
Thistle have scored 28 times this season. Of these, 11 have been headers. There’s a fairly even split between the side of the pitch the crosses come from as well, with five from the left side, four from the right and two from the centre. This shows that these goals are not coming from any one single great crosser of the ball, and that Archibald is purposely making the most of his side’s aerial prowess.
As a result, Thistle have the highest scoring defender in the league in Liam Lindsay- scorer of six goals from set pieces this season already. Here’s his goal against Ross County from December:
He may be 6’ 3”, but as can be seen in the above image, Lindsay possesses a formidable leap too. Very few defenders in Scotland would fancy beating the 21-year-old in the air.
Best of the rest
Since the 1st of October, the top five positions have been occupied by the same five clubs: Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, Hearts and St Johnstone. Frankly, Partick Thistle have a pretty poor record this season when playing any of these five, taking seven points from a possible forty-two. Nevertheless, when you take away these teams, Thistle have been a lot stronger.
Indeed, Partick Thistle’s 2-0 loss to Motherwell in November remains their only defeat to a bottom seven side this term. Twenty-two points from twelve games against the league’s lesser teams is not a shabby total at all.
Going forward, this puts Alan Archibald’s side in an awkward position. If they make the top six, their form against their five potential rivals suggests that it could be an uncomfortable end to the season for the Maryhill side. However, if they fail to pip Dundee to the post, they should make light work of securing seventh.
Stability
Despite still being a good few months away from turning 40, Alan Archibald is the Scottish Premiership’s longest serving current manager. Having won promotion in his first four months as boss, Archibald is nearing his fourth full season in the top flight. This brings organisation and stability.
In his first Premiership season, Thistle conceded 65 goals: around 1.7 goals per game. This term, that’s fallen to around 1.2 per game. A 0.5 swing might not seem like a massive difference at first, but over the course of a 38 game season, it accounts for 19 fewer goals being conceded: the difference between a potential relegation play off and a potential top six finish.
Furthermore, it also means that Archibald knows his team inside out. Seven of his most played eleven players have played over 70% of total available minutes for the club this season (which surely would have been eight, were it not for injury to Tomas Cerny). This means that established partnerships, such as Lindsay-Devine in defence, and Osman-Edwards in midfield can become effective much more quickly.
Partick Thistle have far from the biggest budget in the Scottish Premiership, and are based in a city that all too often talks exclusively in green or blue terms. However, over the past few seasons, the team at Firhill have consolidated themselves as a solid Premiership outfit. This season they will surely avoid relegation and play a fifth successive term in the top flight- the longest spell since 1982. A top six finish is the next logical step in their development- and it’s well within their grasp.
For more analysis like this, follow Dougie on Twitter - @dougie_analysis