Analysis Corner: Looks like we have a Title Race
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
The 2018/19 Scottish Premiership season is beginning to mature. Most sides have now played most other sides, and barring any real surprises, we now have a reasonable of grasp of each side’s strengths and weaknesses.
This gives us an insight into the potential storylines that may unfurl as the season unfolds.
The most surprising is that it seems as though there’s a legitimate chance for a title race here.
With rumours of dressing room unrest, Celtic only won their first away game of the season at the weekend.
Across the city, Rangers are yet to achieve that, with just two points from visits to Pittodrie, Fir Park, Celtic Park and The Tony Macaroni Arena.
In the capital, Hibs have scored thirteen and conceded two in their last four games, whilst Hearts enter the international break two points clear at the top, despite a 3-1 humbling at Ibrox on Sunday.
Finally, let’s not forget about Kilmarnock. Steve Clarke’s side have been the best team in Scotland since the turn of the year and currently have as many points as Celtic, despite already facing all of the above sides.
Celtic are rightly still odds on favourites for the title. Even if they were struggling for goals before the weekend, their control of games meant that opponents were rarely able to win the game themselves. Four goals conceded from eight games is miserly stuff, and it’s kept the Hoops at the right end of the table. If they keep that up, it would take a pretty horrendous attacking performance to stop the title from coming back to Celtic Park.
If matches stopped at ninety minutes on the dot, Rangers would be second in the table – just a point behind Hearts. Yet late goals and generally patchy performances away from home have the Ibrox side sixth in a tightly packed top half of the table.
At home, few can live with Gerrard’s side. This is mostly down to the ferocious manner in which they start games. In the first half of Ibrox games this season, Rangers have scored ten and conceded none. This was emphasised on Sunday where Rangers’ three first half goals against Hearts reduced the second half to a formality.
Yet, away from home, only St Mirren have been poorer. If Rangers depend on a strong start to win the game (they’ve only scored four goals in the second half of games this season), then it stands to reason that teams who frustrate Rangers early on can frustrate them throughout the game.
Indeed, this combination of fading in the second half and playing away from home reveals itself most starkly with the fact that Rangers are yet to score in the second half of a game away from Ibrox.
Whether the issue is mental or tactical, Rangers potential for a title challenge will depend on that getting fixed.
Despite most of the attention going to the Glasgow sides, the top two places in the table are currently held by their Edinburgh rivals.
Hibs are the league’s top scorers. Stevie Mallan looks like a particularly inspired signing with 11 goals and assists in 15 games for the Easter Road side. With Kamberi looking similarly assured in front of goal and Jamie Maclaren yet to hit top form after returning from Darmstadt in the summer, there’s little doubt in my mind that Neil Lennon’s side won’t be far away at the end of the season.
Hearts deservedly remain top dogs. The Gorgie side are experts at holding onto a lead, having not let one slip this season. Despite the absence of captain Christophe Berra, Levein has drilled Hearts into a well organised, hard-working outfit who can beat most opponents either by force or skill. There are a lot of summer signings in their first eleven who have exceeded expectations at Tynecastle. As they gel, the stronger they become.
Kilmarnock will have no problem remaining dark horses. Consistently underestimated, Steve Clarke has instilled sheer willpower into a group that were legitimate relegation candidates last season. When they go behind in a game, they don’t panic. Instead they tighten up at the back, and keep their level of performance steady. As such, despite going behind in 5 games this season, they’ve come back to win 3 of them.
These five sides (and Livingston) have started so strongly that last season’s runners-up Aberdeen now sit seventh in the league – and they have a legitimate fight on their hands to get back into the top six.
All of these teams will beat the others as the season progresses. It’s difficult to see any one team stealing a march on the others. December with its eight games in thirty-one days should give us a true indication of where the title will be heading. But as of right now, it’s at least a five-way fight.
Enjoy it while you can!
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