Analysis Corner: League Table predictions
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)
Three things to watch for in the split
As we approach the final five games of the season, only Celtic know their final position in the table. Rangers and Partick Thistle both have outside chances of finishing second and fourth respectively, while any of the bottom six could still finish in any of the bottom six positions with ten points separating Kilmarnock in seventh from Inverness in twelfth.
This week, I thought I’d write three things to look out for in these final five games, before offering a prediction of what the final table will look like. Tin hat firmly on.
Can Dundee stop the rot?
Across every single professional league in Europe, only Panthrakikos Komotini (Greek 2nd tier) and Borac Cacak (Serbia) have lost more games in a row than Dundee.
It’s been seven straight losses for the Dee, who have since left the top six for the relegation playoff spot. Indeed, only the fact that Inverness’ February win over Rangers remains their only three points since October is now keeping Dundee off the foot of the table.
Just as the underlying numbers proved - Partick Thistle were of top six quality, so too did the numbers predict Dundee’s decline. No team has taken less shots than the Dark Blues, and no team is as bad at getting these shots on target. Taking it a step further and looking at Matt Rhein’s expected goals statistics on his website “The Backpass Rule”, Dundee have languished with Kilmarnock at the foot of the table for most of the season.
On the plus side, five of Dundee’s seven losses have been to top six teams. Everyone around them is more or a less the same level now. However, momentum is a precious thing in football. The new guy will walk into a dressing room that knows just how bad things are at Dens Park- and he’s only got 450 minutes of football to turn it around.
Caixinha’s sorted the defence: now can he get the midfield firing?
These are potentially famous last words heading into two consecutive fixtures against Celtic, but it appears to all intents and purposes that Pedro Caixinha has toughened up the Rangers defence. In five games, Louis Moult’s 3rd minute header at Ibrox remains the solitary goal scored against Rangers since the Portuguese took over.
However, Rangers’ struggles this season have been more down to a lack of quality at the other end of the park. Here’s a table showing the goalscoring contributions each top six side has got from their midfielders:
2,970 minutes of football, and just eighteen goals/assists from the midfield. That’s barely one every two games. The midfield is such a vital organ of a team, and to have such a lack of return from it will be disappointing for Rangers fans.
Out of the Rangers team, not a single midfielder has played over 75% of the available minutes this season. Perhaps that lack of consistency could be something to do with it. Nevertheless, I’m sure Caixinha will be closely monitoring his midfielders’ attacking output as we head into the summer transfer window.
Can Boyce catch Celtic? And where’s he going next?
Without Liam Boyce, Ross County would be gubbed.
With sixteen goals and five assists, he’s had a hand in over half of Ross County’s 37 goals this term. Only Scott Sinclair and Moussa Dembele at Celtic have scored more than the Northern Irishman, and fresh from scoring a controversial penalty against them, he’ll be looking to steal the mantle of top goalscorer for himself.
Boyce has done remarkably well scoring so many goals for what is essentially quite a poor side. Given that Hearts and Rangers have both lacked a consistent goalscorer this season (conversion rates of 11% and 10% respectively), you get the feeling Boyce could be heading to the central belt before too long.
He now has five games against the league’s poorest sides. Perform well and not only will he ensure his side’s safety, he may well earn himself a move higher up the table.
Final prediction
Without further ado, here’s my final table prediction:
After twenty-two wins in a row, Celtic have drawn three of their last six. You could maybe argue that they’ve taken their foot ever so slightly off the gas after wrapping up the league. While I don’t see anyone beating them, I predict a couple more draws by the end of the season.
As for the bottom of the table, I think it’s going to be very tight indeed between Hamilton and Dundee. Killie, Ross County and Motherwell all have established goalscorers, whereas these two do not. A Dundee derby playoff final? Don’t bet against it…
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