Analysis Corner: D-Day in Lanarkshire on Saturday

By Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)

As far as the top six is concerned, despite having three games left to play, the season is effectively over.

Aberdeen’s slip ups mean that Celtic effectively won the league with a 1-1 draw against Rangers in early March, while the closest gap between any of the top six teams is the four points separating fifth placed Hearts from sixth placed Partick Thistle.

However, there is some real action down the bottom of the table.

While no side is mathematically safe from the relegation playoffs, it looks almost certain that it will be one of Motherwell or Hamilton.

The two rivals will meet for the final time this season at the Superseal Stadium on Saturday. You only need to look at the table above to understand what’s at stake, especially if Inverness can get anything from Kilmarnock at Rugby Park.

So how did it come to this? And who’s likely to come out on top in the most important Lanarkshire derby in recent history?

First of all, let’s look at Hamilton. Here’s how their season has shaped out thus far:

To put this in perspective: they’ve only lost two more games than St Johnstone this season. The reason they find themselves twenty points behind the Perth side is that they have been totally crippled by draws. No team has drawn more matches this term than Martin Canning’s side.

This hit them particularly hard in the first half of the season. Eleven draws but two wins tells the story of a side who could clearly compete with their opponents, but failed to “get over the line”. Nevertheless, games with Hamilton are amongst the most tightly contested in the league, with twenty-four of their thirty-five games either having finished a stalemate, or with just one goal in it.

Interestingly, Hamilton actually get into the final third more often than all but the top three teams in the league:

However, when you look at how many final third entries it takes for them to actually score a goal, things look a little less rosy:

Dead last in the league.

What does this show us? Hamilton are good at getting the ball in and around the opposition penalty box, but really struggle to create good scoring opportunities. Indeed, with just 31 goals from 339 shots, not only have they scored the fewest in the league, but they have the lowest conversion rate in the league too.

Quantity over quality has killed Hamilton this season.

Turning our attention now to Fir Park, and it’s been an utterly miserable 2017 for Motherwell.

Eleven points from their past fourteen games have seen the Steelmen drop right into a race for survival.

Let’s look at how their season has gone:

First thing that’s clear is that they belong in the bottom six. Just one win in eighteen attempts against the league’s top six sides is pretty horrendous.

Secondly, apart from Dundee, they actually have quite a decent record against the rest of the sides in the league’s bottom half. Out of their three remaining games, they’ve only lost one of nine matches against their future opposition, which may give the team some added confidence.

However, the third most important, most relevant stat to take away from the above table is this: Motherwell have only kept a clean sheet in four out of their thirty-five games this season.

A clean sheet guarantees a point. Failure to keep one also means that you’ll need to score at least twice to win the game. That’s entirely obvious, but it seems to have been totally missed by the Motherwell management.

The Steelmen have a defence that is frankly woeful. Since people started tracking shots per game in Scotland in the 2005/06 season, no team has given up more shots than the Fir Park side this season.

523 shots conceded so far this term- 78 more than the next placed team, St Johnstone. 200 of them on target has led to an entirely predictable 62 goals conceded. Only Inverness have conceded more (64), and they lie four points adrift at the bottom of the league.

Indeed, Motherwell would almost certainly be in their place were it not for Louis Moult. The Englishman has scored 14 goals this season, more than anyone at Aberdeen, Rangers or Hearts. Only Celtic’s Dembele and Sinclair, and Ross County’s Liam Boyce have scored more. His presence in the six yard box has been invaluable this season, with his goals single handedly providing eleven of their thirty-two points. If Moult wasn’t around, Motherwell would already be preparing for the Championship.

So how will this play out on Saturday afternoon?

Motherwell’s terrible defence coupled with Hamilton’s recent form at home gives the hosts the edge for this one. Apart from Celtic’s two visits, Hamilton have only failed to score once at home this season, while Motherwell are yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels.

However, these odds are not enough to rule out Motherwell altogether. They’re undefeated against Hamilton this season, and have one of the league’s most potent strikers at their disposal. They’ve definitely got a chance.

Neither side have had a particularly successful season. Saturday will give a good indication which one will pay for it most.

For more analysis like this, follow Dougie on Twitter (@dougie_analysis)

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