Analysis Corner: How Hibs combat Celtic
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
It may sound a bit odd writing an article about Hibs’ success over Celtic. The Edinburgh outfit have played the champions three times this season, and are yet to walk away victorious.
However, they’re the only side to have scored more than once against Celtic this season.
Of the twelve goals the Hoops have conceded in Scotland this season, six have come from Hibs.
Furthermore, in three games against Celtic, they’ve only been beaten once. Given this is a side that has won 58 of their last 67 games since the start of last season, that’s fairly noteworthy.
So how are Hibs doing it?
How Celtic have won games so far
Celtic’s success has been built on a solid defence. With just 32 goals conceded in 67 matches, Celtic are conceding once every 188 minutes; less than a goal every other game.
Much of this has come from their game intelligence; Rodgers’ side can easily manage the flow and tempo of the match. Several teams (St Mirren and Aberdeen, for example) have come out the traps early and pressed Celtic relentlessly. However, Celtic are able to use their players’ positioning to circulate the ball well enough to leave the opposition chasing shadows.
Inevitably, the opposition tire. This is when they leave gaps that Celtic can exploit.
On the other hand, sitting back and letting Celtic dominate you is pretty mentally and physically draining. You might deny them space to play in behind, but letting them so close to your goal means they’re only ever one or two passes away from a goal.
How Hibs deal with that
If you watched Hibs on Sunday, they were streetwise enough to avoid sticking devoutly to either of these two strategies.
For most of the first half, Hibs were happy to sit back and hand Celtic the initiative. The home side did not want the ball, as time and again Marciano, Stevenson and Ambrose launched the ball right up the park. This had two theoretical advantages.
When defending, it meant that Celtic would be unable to win the ball back high up the park, and therefore Hibs would be able to organise their defence before Celtic got close to goal.
In attack, Barker and Boyle are two pacy, skilful wingers. Nine times out of ten they will lose an aerial challenge against the likes of Lustig and Boyata, but there’s a chance of a getting a knock on and suddenly being through on goal. This was evident in the first half when Boyata was booked for bringing down Barker on the edge of the box.
The system didn’t work to perfection as Forrest and Lustig missed notable chances. However, by the end of the first half Hibs were level.
After conceding two goals, whether by accident or design, the plan changed: Hibs moved their whole side a good twenty yards forward and went for it.
All of a sudden, John McGinn was harrying Scott Brown thirty yards from the Celtic goal and Efe Ambrose was dribbling into the Celtic half.
So much of goalscoring is based on having numerical superiority, and Hibs were determined to take the game right into the Celtic half.
Anthony Stokes versus the entire Celtic defence didn’t stand much of a chance. When his team mates were buzzing about within ten yards of him, it was a different story.
Take a look at Hibs just before their second goal: eight of the ten outfield players were in Celtic’s half in the build-up.
It’s unusual for a team to be this ambitious against Celtic domestically, and there is a good argument that their players weren’t prepared for a side to be throwing so many numbers forward against them. Indeed, between the two goals, Celtic only managed to piece together five passes. The equalising goal itself originated from a long Craig Gordon punt up the park; quite different to Celtic’s usual composed manner of playing out from the back. The champions were rattled, and Hibs were able to profit.
What can other teams learn from this?
Despite the draw, the quality of chances would leave you thinking that Celtic had probably done enough to win the game. However, much to the frustration of analysts and coaches everywhere, games are won by goals, not chances. You can load the dice in your favour, but you still have to throw the thing.
Nevertheless, Hibs showed on Sunday that if you can co-ordinate your positioning correctly, show some ambition in attack, and then ride your luck a fair bit, you can take something from these games. It’s certainly a strategy every other club in Scotland will be watching with a beady eye.
For more analysis like this, follow Dougie on Twitter (@dougie_wright)