Analysis Corner: The future's looking bright for Scotland
by Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
Scotland: the future
Scotland are four matches away from ending a twenty year curse. Seven international tournaments have come and gone without the Tartan Army in sight. Comparative minnows like Latvia, Iceland and New Zealand have all had their day in the sun, but beat Slovakia and Slovenia, negotiate a two legged playoff, and then Scotland will finally be back in a proper international tournament.
As easy it is to get caught up with the here and now, it’s sometimes worth zooming out to look at the overall state of the national team. Where are we just now? How will our current strategy affect us two, three or four years in the future?
Managing the national team is a delicate balance. Of course, you want to pick the players who are currently excelling for their club side. However, you also want to build a collective within the squad; a group of players who know each other’s game and who know how to execute the manager’s tactics. Furthermore, you want to blood players who will be able to represent the national side for the next two or three tournaments.
Where are we at just now?
Take a look at this graph. It shows every player to have seen action for Scotland in the qualifying campaign so far:
The red zone consists of players over the age of 30. There are exceptions to every rule, but generally these players are past their prime. They may contribute to one or two more qualifying campaigns, but they certainly cannot be expected to carry the national team in the coming years.
The green zone consists of players under the age of 26. These are the players yet to approach their peak years as footballers, and will probably improve over the coming seasons.
The blue zone is probably the most important for Scotland. This includes all players between the ages of 26 and 30 – players who are currently in their prime.
What are the problems here?
Overall, the chart shows that Scotland probably have too many guys in the red zone. Over half (14) of the 27 players used in this qualifying campaign will be 30 or over by the time the World Cup comes around. Of particular concern is finding a goalkeeper capable of challenging the incumbents. Craig Gordon (34), Allan McGregor (35) and David Marshall (32) have collectively dominated the national goalkeeping scene for over a decade, and continue to do so. Do we have anyone coming through to challenge them?
Similarly, strikers look to be in short supply. While Leigh Griffiths has led the line effectively recently, options beyond the Celtic striker are limited. Chris Martin turns 30 next year and has yet to establish himself as a reliable striker with just 3 goals in 12 games so far. Meanwhile, Steven Fletcher turned 30 this year. His 9 goals in 30 games is more respectable on the surface, but crumbles when you consider that 6 of these goals came in two games against Gibraltar.
What do we have to look forward to?
It is really encouraging for Scotland that Robertson and Tierney have both seen a good deal of action this campaign. Indeed, no player has been used more than Robertson, while only the Liverpool fullback and Robert Snodgrass have seen more minutes than Tierney. The defensive duo can realistically be considered to be fixtures in the national team for the next decade and beyond.
The names on the bottom left of the chart should similarly be cause for optimism. Both Ryan Fraser and Oli Burke should get regular minutes in the English Premier League this season. Similar to Tierney and Robertson, they could be able to cement their places in the national team set up for the foreseeable future.
Beyond this graph, there are plenty of players who may well come into the mix. Tom Cairney has done consistently well for Fulham in the English Championship, while if the likes of Scott Wright, Anthony Ralston and Michael O’Halloran continue to impress at club level, then national recognition may well be in the offing
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