Analysis Corner: End of Season Predictions
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
Predictions
As the second half of the 2017/18 Scottish Premiership season kicks off this week, we now have a good idea of each side’s strengths and weaknesses. With that in mind, I can now make some totally sensible predictions for the rest of the campaign that will in no way backfire and make me look silly.
Relegation battle
So far for Motherwell, the season can be divided firmly between when Louis Moult was playing and when he got injured. Before the injury, the Steelmen were flying high in the league and even made the League Cup final. Since he’s been injured, they’ve only managed taken 4 points from a possible 30. Now with Moult having signed for Preston, they badly need to find a permanent replacement for their former talisman’s output.
However, it appears that the Fir Park outfit have taken action to remedy this. Both Curtis Main and Nadr Cifci have been signed to replace the Moult filled gap in the Motherwell XI. With Craig Tanner beginning to chip in with goals too, it seems as though Motherwell will stop the rot in the second half of the season. A 2-0 home win over Hamilton at the weekend will see them resume the second half of their league campaign in good spirits.
Less good are Ross County. Last season, it’s impossible to overstate how dependent they were on Liam Boyce. The Northern Irish hitman was the league top scorer with 23 goals, and it’s no exaggeration to say that the Dingwall side built most of their game around him. Boyce fed off one touch finishes from crosses, and most of what Ross County did last season was there to facilitate that.
However, herein lies a lesson of what can happen when you build your team around one player: when he leaves, you need to rebuild everything from scratch.
Looking at the league last year, there was a trend of the bottom six clubs eventually being saved by having a reliable striker. Boyd for Kilmarnock, Moult for Motherwell and Boyce for Ross County all fired their sides to safety. After twenty two games this season, no Ross County player has more than 5 goals. With one win in their last ten games, they need to find a regular source of goals sharp. If not, the Championship is staring them in the face.
The title and assorted challengers
With an eight point lead already established, Celtic should be quietly confident of retaining their title.
However, the fact remains that the champions had only dropped points once at this stage last year; this time they’ve dropped points on seven occasions.
You can make some decent arguments about teams adapting to Celtic’s style of play, as well as the mental fatigue of a 2017 that contained 61 competitive games of football. Yet the gap at the top this time last year was 22 points; now it’s more than halved. The champions will likely have some work to do to secure seven in a row.
As for the chasing pack, what’s the difference between Aberdeen and Rangers?
There is currently a three point gap between the rivals with the Pittodrie outfit currently ahead, yet facing a visit to Ibrox on Wednesday night. With Rangers having comfortably won their previous two encounters this season, Murty’s side will be confident of leapfrogging Aberdeen in the table come the full time whistle.
And yet, as much as things have changed at these two sides over the past 12 months, they’re actually more or a less in the same position as they were this time last year. Rangers spent nearly £10 million in the summer to ultimately be two points worse off than they were in January 2017, while Aberdeen are sitting on the same forty three points that they had from the same twenty two games.
January has been a microcosm of life at these two clubs over the past few seasons. Aberdeen have had minimal change, only bringing back Niall McGinn who only left in June and who already has over 200 appearances for the Dons. Rangers, meanwhile, have made four first team signings, brought back three loanees, and have said goodbye to top summer signing Carlos Peña, with Bruno Alves rumoured to be soon to follow.
Time will tell whether Aberdeen’s turtle will beat Rangers’ hare for the second successive season, but it will be a bridge too far to catch up with Celtic.
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