Analysis Corner: End of season prediction
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)
It may only be February, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season. Everyone has played everyone else, home and away.
Will Celtic do the treble?
In the league, Celtic have taken seventy-three points from a possible seventy-five. They’ve
already built up such a large gap at the top of the table that they could afford to go on holiday for the next six weeks, and they’d still be in first place when they got back.
This means that the Scottish Cup is the realistically the only silverware between Brendan Rodgers’ side and a first domestic treble in sixteen years.
St Mirren at Parkhead shouldn’t prove too challenging in the quarter finals, which would leave two dates at Hampden for a trophy hungry squad. Albeit that anything can happen in a one off game, it’s telling that Celtic are yet to concede a single goal in their six domestic knockout games this season.
Bookmakers won’t even provide odds at evens for this: I would be amazed if Celtic didn’t win the treble.
Who will finish second?
Aberdeen are hitting form at just the right time. Twenty-one points have been taken from the last available twenty-four, just as all of their rivals have gone through some of their worst patches of the season.
Historically, the worry for Dons fans will be their tendency to run out of steam towards the end of the season. From this point last year, Aberdeen took just fifteen points from their remaining thirteen games, while the season before that, they only won a single game post-split.
However, the case of Aberdeen is only strengthened when you look at their rivals. For a point of comparison, from their last twenty-four points available, St Johnstone have taken thirteen points, while Hearts and Rangers have picked up just eleven.
With an eleven and twelve-point gap between Hearts and St Johnstone respectively, it is probably fair to say Aberdeen only need to really worry about Rangers catching them
However, the Ibrox side find themselves in the midst of their worst run of the season, with just one win in their past six games. Add to that their managerial woes, and the fact that the next few weeks brings another “daunting” trip to Parkhead, and the picture doesn’t look much rosier.
At this rate, Aberdeen should have second all but tied up before the sides meet at Pittodrie on the 8th April.
Who’s going to make the top six? And who’s going down?
A weekend win over Rangers put some big smiles onto Tayside, as Dundee propelled themselves into the top six for the first time this season. With the Dens Park side three points adrift at the foot of the table, they’ve shown stellar form to drag themselves into relative security.
That being said, their remaining eight fixtures sees Aberdeen and Celtic come to town, alongside trips to McDiarmid Park and Tynecastle.
With this in mind, I think they may well be pipped to the post by Partick Thistle, who are just a point behind. The Jags have one of the best defences in the league, conceding ten goals fewer than the average bottom six side, and have three games at home against teams in and around them in the league before the split.
As for relegation, Inverness do not look in fine fettle. They are without a win in fourteen games, and are five points away from the safety of tenth. Releasing top goalscorer Lonsana Doumbouya in January was fairly mad, and it looks like they’ll be either be relegated, or, at best, face a couple of play off matches.
Looking at who could join them, Kilmarnock would be my favourites. Managerial switches at this time of the season are never good news, especially just weeks after losing the talismanic Souleymane Coulibaly. With one win in ten games, interim boss Lee McCulloch has hardly walked into a confident squad.
Their last three games pre-split are Celtic, Rangers and Hearts. If Kilmarnock want to avoid a relegation dogfight, they need to be safe before then.
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