Analysis Corner: de Vries should be a capable stand in for Gordon
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
On Saturday, Celtic’s 1-0 win over Hibs was marred by the news that Craig Gordon’s first half injury would see him sidelined for up to 12 weeks.
Since Brendan Rodgers became Celtic manager, no player has seen more game time than the 35 year old. After initially being dropped for Dorus De Vries, Gordon fought his way back into the team, and has gained much praise for learning to adapt to Rodgers’ passing style of play.
Yet, opinion is pretty much split on what Gordon’s injury means for the team’s future prospects.
On one side of the debate, there are those who believe that De Vries is a more than capable replacement. To date, Gordon has only had to make just over two saves per league game this season. The school of thought is that with such a well organised defence, Gordon doesn’t actually have to do much anyway. Therefore, De Vries should be a perfectly adequate stand-in.
On the other side, there are those who don’t trust the Dutchman. They will cite the fact that De Vries has conceded a goal every 45 minutes playing for Celtic, while the fact that he’s 37 and has only played one full match in the past twelve months is hardy good news. How is he supposed to have a solid understanding with his defenders with such little competitive game time together?
So how can we predict whether or not De Vries’ stint in goals will be a success? To do that, we have to establish what a goalkeeper actually does.
While goalkeeping is most obviously associated with saving shots, they actually don’t spend that much time doing that.
So far this season, as mentioned, Gordon has saved just over two shots a game. However, he has also made around 26 passes every game. Therefore, Gordon’s makes around 13 passes for every save he makes.
Clearly, distribution is a big part of a goalkeeper’s game.
This is especially important when teams press man to man high up the pitch. When the centre backs are under pressure, it’s unlikely that the opposition are going to commit a man to pressurise Gordon. That means it’s up to Gordon to find the pass that’s going to beat the press. To do this requires an understanding of whereabouts his team-mates are and what their movement will be like.
De Vries may not have had many competitive minutes, but he will have trained with Celtic’s defenders every day for the past 18 months. He may therefore be a bit rusty when he comes back into the team, but it’s unlikely that Celtic will be able to bring in another goalkeeper with as solid an understanding of Celtic’s defensive movements as De Vries.
In a similar sense, organising the defence will be a real test of how much work De Vries has been putting in on the training ground. Does he understand Celtic’s defensive set up? The ideal distance between the players? Their potential weak spots that need monitored before they become a problem?
The smart money says that a guy renowned for his professionalism throughout his career will likely tick those boxes.
Once distribution and organisation have been taken care of, the only thing that remains is making the saves themselves.
Earlier I cited the fact that De Vries has conceded a goal every 45 minutes in his time at Parkhead so far. That’s true, but the context is that 7 of his 12 conceded came against Barcelona in the Champions League. In his last full season at Nottingham Forest (15/16), he saved a respectable 75% of shots on target.
Despite many Celtic fans remembering his howler against Kilmarnock’s Souleymane Coulibaly at Parkhead, the fact remains that De Vries remains a solid shot stopper overall. If he stays close to his 75% save rate, Celtic won’t be conceding too many at all.
All football clubs will lose an important player during a season. Through injury, transfer or suspension, it’s likely that a player who started the season on the bench will have to make the transition into first team starter. Celtic fans can rest assured that De Vries should prove an able stand in for their injured number one.
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