Analysis Corner: Celtic Comparison
Last updated 10th Apr 2018
With five games left of the season, Celtic sit on the verge of a seventh consecutive Scottish Premiership title. Three points is all they need to retain their championship and conclude a reasonably painless title defence.
However this has certainly been a season of change at Celtic Park. Without going as far to say “second season syndrome”, the Parkhead side have undoubtedly been faced with far more obstacles in this campaign than last.
Injuries have taken their toll, while competitors have adapted their tactics to better play against the champions. As such, where last season Celtic only dropped points in 4 games, this season they’ve already dropped points in 11.
In spite of this, Rodgers’ side are still just three games away from achieving a “double treble”.
Here’s how Celtic have faced these challenges head on:
Goalscoring
Last season, three of the top four goalscorers in the league were Celtic players. In their debut seasons in Scotland, Scott Sinclair and Moussa Dembélé hit 21 and 17 goals respectively, while Stuart Armstrong and Leigh Griffiths weren’t too far behind with 15 and 12 goals of their own.
This season, there’s not even one Celtic player in double figures when it comes to the league.
Of Celtic’s six top scorers from last season, only Scott Sinclair has avoided a serious injury this term.
The worst hit has undoubtedly been Patrick Roberts. The Man City loanee played 32 games last season; this year he’s only started 5.
The treble winning 2016/17 season may have been fantastic for supporters, but a 59 game campaign that lasted 323 days looks to have had the unfortunate side effect of a squad more prone to injury (even more so with less than a month’s break before returning to training for 2017/18).
Last season, Celtic were posting around 2.8 goals a game. This season, that rate has fell to 1.9 goals a game.
Without fluency in the team, their top guys have suffered. Dembele was 0.8 goals per game last year, now he’s dropped to a goal every other game. Sinclair has gone from contributing 21 goals from the wing to scoring once every 250 minutes.
However, it’s in midfield where Celtic have suffered most. Take a look at the following table:
Although it’s after 33 games this season, you’d have little hope for their midfielders being able to get anywhere near last year’s total. This is where injuries to Roberts, Armstrong and Rogic have been particularly notable.
Defence
Despite a dip in output up top, the good news for Celtic is that their defending is pretty much unchanged from last season. This is particularly impressive given injuries to Gordon, Boyata, Simunovic, Sviatchenko and Bitton.
As much credit as the at-times makeshift defence deserves, it has to be acknowledged that this defensive stinginess owes much to the defensive ability of their more attacking players
Celtic have the highest possession in the top flight and stay in the opposition half longer than any other team in the league. It’s therefore logical that when they lose the ball, the first guys tasked with winning it back are the attackers.
While the natural reaction is to credit the defensive players for a good defensive record, recognition must be given to players such as Callum McGregor (who averages over 2.5 interceptions per game).
David Wotherspoon of St Johnstone is leading the attacking players in the league when it comes to interceptions, making 4.8 per 90 minutes.
However, St Johnstone are out of possession for roughly 55 minutes every single match. On the other hand, Celtic hold onto the ball for about an hour each game. Therefore, if you were to give McGregor as many opportunities to win the ball back as Wotherspoon, there’s little doubt the Celtic midfielder would be rivalling his St Johnstone counterpart as one of the most active attacking players in the league when it comes to defending.
This has led to 18 clean sheets in 33 games. Considering that 8 of these have either been 0-0 draws, or 1-0 wins to Celtic, it is no exaggeration to say that these clean sheets have been the foundation of the title defence.
Decision time
Despite success in the face of adversity, Brendan Rodgers will roll into the summer with some serious decisions to make.
In 71 league games, he’s lost only 2. The truth is that despite injuries, suspensions, fixture backlogs and whatever else, no other team in the country have been able to get near to his Celtic team.
However, this time next year, Celtic will have a problem.
Scott Brown will be just about to turn 34, Craig Gordon will be 36, Scott Sinclair will be 30, and Tom Rogic, Stuart Armstrong, Mikael Lustig, James Forrest and Dedryck Boyata will all be in the final months of their Celtic contracts.
This means that Brendan Rodgers has some important decisions to make this summer. Does he stick by his veterans? Does he sell the players soon to be out of contract? Should Dembélé be sold? If so, can he trust Edouard to adequately replace him?
It is how this transition is managed that will determine how much further Celtic will go.