Analysis Corner: How Celtic change gravity around them
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_analysis)
Generally, shooting from range isn’t a good idea. If you’re familiar with this column, you may be familiar with the statistic that just one of every thirty shots taken outside the box becomes a goal. This is because the keeper has more time to react, the defenders have more time to block, and it’s more difficult to actually get the shot on target.
From an analytical perspective, teams are better off working their way closer to the goal, where the chance of scoring becomes a lot higher- around one every six in the central channel of the box.
However, there are situations where long range shooting has a purpose, even if the intention is not to score a goal.
Which team have taken the most shots from outside the box this season?
Celtic.
The champions have hit 313 of their 690 shots from outside of the box, more than any other team in the league. So why might a team do this?
First of all, the obvious one: they’re good at it. The one in thirty statistic looks at every single team in the league. The good, the bad and the ugly. Celtic naturally have the best players, and the best players are more likely to hit the target than those with less ability.
This is reflected in their conversion rate from outside the box: the number of shots Celtic take from this area for them to score a goal. This season 25 goals have come from these 313 shots- a ratio of around a goal for every twelve shots. Much more efficient than one every thirty.
This statistic is largely thanks to Stuart Armstrong.
He’s scored twice as many from outside the box as anyone else in the league. His 8 goals from 51 shots outside the box translates to a conversion rate of one every six shots. That’s the same ratio as it would be for the average player to score from the “danger zone”- the central channel of the penalty box. This means that Armstrong is an extra striker for Celtic, except playing 10/15 yards behind the others.
Besides being good at it, there are other tactical reasons why a team might like to shoot
from range.
I’d like to introduce a basketball term here to help with this: gravity. In this instance, gravity is less about the laws of physics than it is about how many opposition defenders you can pull towards you. Players with high gravity will draw opposition players towards them; players with low gravity will not.
Here’s a picture of Armstrong shooting from distance against St Johnstone:
Now, the better teams in the Scottish Premiership tend to face deep opposition defences. The opposition will look to keep bodies close to their penalty area, making it difficult for the home side to find time and space in areas close to the goal.
However, if the opposition know that you have a player who is quite capable of scoring from distance, that can provide a massive benefit. These three St Johnstone players are rushing to close down Armstrong because they know he’s dangerous in this area. He’s got a high level of gravity.
These three players have now left a little pocket of space behind them that any number of Celtic players could attack.
If you have a player with a lot of gravity, who can take opposing defenders away from the penalty area, then it can be a good idea to let them shoot from range.
Now looking across to the other side of the city for an example of when not to shoot from range.
Rangers have taken 252 shots from outside the box this season. How many goals have they scored? 3.
That’s 84 shots per goal, nearly three times worse than the one in 30 standard.
So what’s the difference? Why aren’t they coming anywhere near close to average?
The answer is probably obvious: they’re not great at it. Tavernier has 32 shots and scored one. Miller has 27, scored none. However, let’s zoom in on Martyn Waghorn here.
The Englishman has so far taken 26 shots from outside the area this season, and hasn’t scored a single one of them. Here’s a shot he took last month against Kilmarnock:
He’s got one Kilmarnock player marking him and that’s it. The Kilmarnock players aren’t as quick to close down Waghorn because they don’t really see him as a threat from distance. They’re happy to let him take a 30-yard shot and keep their defensive structure. Waghorn is a low gravity player.
This means that Rangers find it more difficult to get space in and around the penalty area. Consequently, they generally have a poor quality of shots. Evidence of this can be found in the fact that they have the lowest conversion rate of all teams in the league, bar Hamilton and Inverness, with just one every ten shots going in.
To sum this all up, having players capable of shooting from range is a really useful tool for a team to have. Not only can it be a source of goals, but if the opposition know that you’re a threat from distance (and have high gravity players), then the long range shooters can draw opposition players away from the penalty box, opening up space for team mates.
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