Analysis Corner: AEK Athens v Celtic Preview
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
You may have heard of Bert Kassies as the Dutchman behind the popular website that translates all of UEFA’s complex stipulations into a semi-readable guide on UEFA co-efficients. He also did a study looking at every two-legged tie in Europe between 1979 and 2008.
Bert found that teams who draw 1-1 at home in the first leg only qualify 25% of the time.
Luckily for Celtic, the map is not the territory and Bert Kassies’ study will have no direct bearing on the efforts of the Celtic team on Tuesday night.
However, there are a few legitimate reasons for Hoops fans to be concerned ahead of tonight’s tie in Athens.
This is a squad very light in depth. Not only have there been no replacements for the departed Stuart Armstrong and Paddy Roberts, but the ongoing Dedryck Boyata transfer saga coupled with injuries to Lewis Morgan, Leigh Griffiths, Marvin Compper and Moussa Dembélé has called for tactical and personnel decisions that Rodgers is surely not comfortable with.
A prime example would be Jack Hendry. The January signing from Dundee has been much maligned by the Celtic support for poor positioning since his arrival. Indeed, in eight league starts, the 23-year-old has only tasted victory once, and that’s when he was subbed at half time versus Hamilton (credit to @E_JackThaler for the stat).
When a midfield doesn’t trust its defence, they tend to drop deeper to make sure the defenders aren’t left to defend the space one on one.
The consequence of this is twofold: the midfielders are less able to contribute to a counter attack should the ball be won back, and you can be very vulnerable to cutbacks if most of your midfield has chased the opposing player back to the touchline.
It’s worth emphasizing how much space Kyle Lafferty had on the edge of the Celtic box when he hit Saturday’s winner:
To further strengthen the point, tonight’s opponents scored from a similar situation in the first leg in Glasgow last week:
In both cases, Celtic’s midfield has failed to pick up a runner coming in from deep which has left them with time and space in the box to score. This is pretty much a direct result of a fractured relationship between defence and midfield.
This particular tie will be new ground for both Rodgers and the club. In the history of qualifiers for European competition, Celtic have never been involved in a score draw when playing the first leg at home. Add to that the hostile atmosphere and the sweltering heat, it’s a considerable ask for Celtic to progress.
However, here are some quick-fire reasons for optimism:
- AEK only had two shots on target in the first leg. The goal was their only real clear cut chance. In contrast, Celtic were unlucky not to have scored at least once more. It may well be that AEK’s gameplan was to sit back and prioritise not conceding over scoring. However, Celtic caused them plenty of problems, while AEK’s ability to consistently do the reverse is yet to be proven.
- AEK’s home defensive record is over-rated. In five Europa League games last season, AEK only kept a clean sheet in two of them. Rijeka, Austria Wien and Dynamo Kiev are hardly world beaters and they all managed to score in Athens.
- Celtic can still pick Odsonne Edouard. The record signing is by far and away Celtic’s most prolific striker in terms of minutes per goal, scoring roughly once every 110 minutes in nearly 18 full games at the club. His intelligent running often leaves him with merely one or two touches to finish, which will be vital if Celtic are to break down what will likely be a packed Athenian defence.
While Celtic will be underdogs in a European qualifier for the first time under Rodgers, their task is straightforward enough. Without being too blasé about it, the value of a goal scored is far more than a goal conceded in this case. Celtic’s defensive vulnerabilities have been evident this season, but tonight’s game will mostly rest on how they succeed going forward
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