Isolation rules change as Scotland faces 'tsunami' of Omicron cases

Scotland could see a "tsunami of infections" from the new Omicron variant, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

A Scottish Government evidence paper said the variant "threatens a rapid and large surge" in cases, with modelling showing infections could rise as high as 25,000 a day in the worst case scenario.

The rate at which cases of the new variant double is between two and three days, the paper said, and it is highly probable that Omicron will become the dominant variant within Scotland "very quickly".

It follows advice from Public Health Scotland (PHS) urging people to defer Christmas celebrations given the number of Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly those caused by the new Omicron variant of coronavirus, that are being linked to Christmas parties.

READ MORE: Advice to delay Christmas parties 'heavy blow' to hospitality sector

The First Minister told a coronavirus briefing in Edinburgh on Friday following publication of the paper: "The fact is, we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new Omicron variant.

"To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing - indeed we may be starting to experience - a potential tsunami of infections."

More than 1,000 confirmed, probable and possible Omicron cases have been reported in Scotland.

The data shows it is "likely that a proportion of these infections will result in hospitalisation".

But it adds: "Even if the resulting illness is relatively mild, the number of cases could potentially cause great disruption to other services, in the economy and businesses, and in wider society, as more people would be absent from work due to illness and asked to isolate if they test positive, or as contacts of someone who has tested positive.

"It also means that the rapid rise in Omicron infections could put significant additional pressure on hospitals and other health and care services, close to the point in the winter when they are already likely to be at peak pressure."

What are the changes to isolation?

From tomorrow, household contacts of positive coronavirus cases in Scotland will be forced to self-isolate regardless of testing negative for the virus, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Rules for close contacts not living in the same household as the positive case remain unchanged.

The First Minister said the Scottish Government will "consider its next steps very carefully" in the wake of the new Omicron variant spreading through the country.

But she told the coronavirus briefing in Edinburgh: "Given that Omicron is now becoming dominant, our response to it has to be more general."

She added: "From tomorrow, our advice will be that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days, regardless of their vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative PCR test.

"I know this is not easy and we will obviously keep it under review, we will also ensure careful exemptions for critical services but we believe this to be essential at this moment to help slow transmission."

An evidence paper published ahead of a briefing by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon states the rate at which cases of the new variant double is between 2.16 days and 2.66 days.

It says: "Based on the data presented in this paper which is up to and including December 9, it is highly probable that Omicron will outcompete Delta and become the dominant variant within Scotland very quickly, with the potential to cause high case numbers.

The evidence paper can be read here.

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• covid-19
• self-isolation