Covid-19 may have been spreading in Scotland earlier than thought
New studies have found community transmission may have taken place in February
Community transmission of Covid-19 in Scotland may have taken place in February, earlier than initially confirmed, according to genetic studies of the virus.
Interim chief medical officer Dr Gregor Smith said scientists have been working to establish the “family trees” of coronavirus as it spread through the population.
Speaking at the First Minister's daily briefing on Tuesday, he said there were at least 112 separate introductions of Covid-19 into Scotland that ultimately led to sustained community transmission.
The “lineages” found in Scotland were mainly associated with the continental European epicentre of the virus, he said.
Previously, the Scottish Government announced the detection of the first case of community transmission on March 11.
Dr Smith said new research “has identified viral lineages with no clear link to travel at the very early stages of the outbreak in Scotland, suggesting that there may have been earlier introduction to Scotland, and community spread, even before the first cases emerged”.
Discussing the outbreak associated with the Nike conference in Edinburgh at the end of February, which led to eight Scottish cases of coronavirus, he said direct evidence of further spread had not been established.
Dr Smith said: “This particular sub-lineage of the virus has not been detected in Scotland since towards the end of March.
“This suggests that the actions taken by the IMT (incident management team) to manage this outbreak were successful in curtailing spread and led to the eradication of this particular viral lineage.”
In response to a question at the briefing, he said not all of the coronavirus cases in early March could be linked to “importation” from abroad.
Dr Smith said: “What that suggests is that there was some form of community transmission which was under way in Scotland probably during the month of February but it's difficult to be closer than that.”
He stressed the number of cases in February would have been very small, with the main peak taking place towards the end of March and early April.
Dr Smith said: “What we're saying is that this data suggests there may have been some cases which were imported into Scotland during February but the reality is that they're likely to be very few in number.”
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